Morningstar DBRS Confirms Credit Ratings on Autonoria DE 2023

DBRS Ratings GmbH (Morningstar DBRS) confirmed the following credit ratings on the bonds issued by Autonoria DE 2023 (the Issuer):

-- Class A Notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes at AA (high) (sf)
-- Class C Notes at A (high) (sf)
-- Class D Notes at A (low)(sf)
-- Class E Notes at BB (sf)
-- Class F Notes at B (sf)

DBRS Morningstar did not assign a rating to the Class G Notes (collectively with the Rated Notes, the Notes) also issued in this transaction.

The credit ratings on the Class A Notes and Class B Notes address the timely payment of scheduled interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the final maturity date in January 2043. The credit ratings on the Class C Notes, Class D Notes, Class E Notes, and Class F Notes address the ultimate payment (then timely as most-senior class) of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the final maturity date.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the January 2024 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Rated Notes to cover the expected losses at their respective credit rating levels.

The transaction represents the securitisation of receivables relating to a pool of retail auto loan receivables originated by BNP Paribas S.A., Niederlassung Deutschland (the Seller and Servicer) through its Consors Finanz brand to German borrowers. The transaction closed in March 2023 with a portfolio balance of EUR 525 million and included a six-month revolving period, which ended on the September 2023 payment date. Prior to a sequential redemption event, principal is allocated to the Notes on a pro rata basis. Following a sequential redemption event, principal is allocated on a sequential basis. Once the amortisation becomes sequential, it cannot switch to pro rata.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the January 2024 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months delinquent represented 0.6% and 0.2% of the principal outstanding balance of the portfolio, respectively, while loans that were more than three months delinquent represented 0.1%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 2.6% of the original portfolio balance, with cumulative recoveries of 19.0% to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
Morningstar DBRS conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 2.1% and 55.0%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior notes provides credit enhancement to the rated Notes. As of the January 2024 payment date, credit enhancements to the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, and Class F Notes were 12.8%, 9.8%, 7.0%, 6.0%, 3.9%, and 3.0%, respectively. The credit enhancement has remained stable since Morningstar DBRS’ initial credit rating because of the pro rata amortisation of the Notes. If a sequential redemption event is triggered, the principal repayment of the Notes will become sequential and non-reversible.

The transaction benefits from an amortising liquidity reserve funded at closing by the seller in an amount equal to 1.55% of the Notes and floored at 0.50% of the Notes' initial balance as at the closing date, which is available to cover senior expenses, swap expenses, Class A Notes’ interest and, if not deferred in the waterfalls, interest on the remaining Notes. The liquidity reserve is currently at its target of EUR 7.1 million.

BNP Paribas SA (BNP Paribas) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on Morningstar DBRS’ reference rating of AA on BNP Paribas (which is one notch below its Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating of AA (high)), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, Morningstar DBRS considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the credit ratings assigned to the Rated Notes, as described in Morningstar DBRS' "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

BNP Paribas acts as the interest rate swap counterparty for the transaction. Morningstar DBRS' private rating on BNPPF is consistent with the first rating threshold as described in Morningstar DBRS' "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Morningstar DBRS’ credit rating on the Rated Notes addresses the credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in accordance with the relevant transaction documents.

Morningstar DBRS’ credit rating does not address non-payment risk associated with contractual payment obligations contemplated in the applicable transaction documents that are not financial obligations.

Morningstar DBRS’ long-term credit ratings provide opinions on risk of default. Morningstar DBRS considers risk of default to be the risk that an issuer will fail to satisfy the financial obligations in accordance with the terms under which a long-term obligation has been issued.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Environment Factors
The initial portfolio has a relatively high exposure to older petrol and diesel engine vehicles that are unlikely to be classified as Euro 6 (up to 20.8% of receivables may be related to vehicles registered prior to 2016). Morningstar DBRS considers that risks related to greenhouse gas emissions may be associated with future restrictions on these vehicle types, including bans and additional taxes. These risks may lead to changes in expected vehicle valuations and borrower behaviours that could subsequently influence future default, recovery, and prepayment activity. Morningstar DBRS considers this exposure, combined with the longer-than-typical contract tenors, a relevant environmental factor within its credit analysis, however, it did not affect the credit ratings.

There were no Social or Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how Morningstar DBRS considers ESG factors within the Morningstar DBRS analytical framework can be found in the Morningstar DBRS Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/427030.

Morningstar DBRS analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the credit ratings is: “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (11 December 2023), https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/425148.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

The credit rating on the Series E notes materially deviates from the higher rating implied by the cash flow analysis. DBRS Morningstar considers a material deviation to be a rating difference of three or more notches between the assigned credit rating and the credit rating implied after application of the relevant methodologies; in this case, the rating is deemed to be highly sensitive to the sequential redemption trigger in the transaction and the timing of such trigger breach, which is dependent on future transaction performance.

Morningstar DBRS has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent credit rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance credit ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/421590.

The sources of data and information used for these credit ratings include investor reports provided by France Titrisation and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

Morningstar DBRS did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial credit ratings, Morningstar DBRS was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the credit rating analysis.

Morningstar DBRS considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these credit ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

Morningstar DBRS does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the credit rating process.

The last credit rating action on this transaction took place on 21 March 2023, when Morningstar DBRS finalised its provisional credit ratings on the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, and Class F Notes at AAA (sf), AA (high) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (low) (sf), BB (sf), and B (sf), respectively.

The lead analyst responsibilities has been transferred to Preben Cornelius Overas.

Information regarding Morningstar DBRS credit ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on dbrs.morningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the credit rating, Morningstar DBRS considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the credit rating (the base case):

-- Morningstar DBRS expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 2.1% and 55.0%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the credit ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)

Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)

Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)

Class E Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)

Class F Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (low)(sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of B (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating below B (low) (sf)

For further information on Morningstar DBRS historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. For further information on Morningstar DBRS historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

These credit ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 21 March 2023

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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The credit rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://dbrs.morningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (11 December 2023),
https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/425148
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (30 June 2023),
https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/416730
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2023), https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/420572
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (8 January 2024),
https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/426219
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (11 December 2023),
https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/425149
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (15 September 2023), https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/420602
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (18 September 2023), https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/420754
-- Morningstar DBRS Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (23 January 2024), https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/427030

A description of how Morningstar DBRS analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.