DBRS Morningstar Confirms Credit Ratings on FT RMBS Prado IX

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its credit ratings on the Class A and Class B Notes issued by FT RMBS Prado IX (the Issuer) at AAA (sf) and A (high) (sf), respectively.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the September 2023 payment date;
-- Portfolio default rate (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses at their respective credit rating levels.

The credit rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the final maturity date in June 2055. The credit rating on the Class B Notes addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the final maturity date.

The transaction is a securitisation of residential mortgage loans secured by first-lien mortgages originated and serviced by Union de Créditos Inmobiliarios S.A., E.F.C (UCI or the seller) in Spain. The Issuer used the proceeds of the Class A, Class B, and Class C Notes to fund the purchase of the mortgage portfolio from the seller. UCI provided a separate additional subordinated loan to fund the reserve fund. The securitisation took place in the form of a fund, in accordance with Spanish securitisation law. It closed in October 2021.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of September 2023, loans two to three months in arrears represented 0.0% of the outstanding portfolio balance, stable since the last annual review one year ago. The 90+-day delinquency ratio increased to 0.3% from 0.2% and the cumulative default ratio remained at 0.0% in the same period.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 1.5% and 14.4%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The credit enhancement to the rated notes is provided by the subordination of the junior notes and the reserve fund. As of the September 2023 payment date, credit enhancement for the Class A and Class B Notes increased to 17.5% and 11.5%, respectively, up from 16.1% and 10.7%, respectively, in September 2022.

The transaction benefits from an amortising reserve fund sized at 2% of the initial outstanding balance of the assets, subject to a floor of 0.25% of the initial portfolio balance. It is currently at its target balance of EUR 8.2 million. The reserve fund provides liquidity and credit support to the rated notes.

Banco Santander SA (Santander) acts as the account bank for this transaction. Based on Santander’s reference rating of A (high) (one notch below its DBRS Morningstar Long Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of AA (low)), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to Santander to be consistent with the ratings on the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.
BNP Paribas SA (BNP Paribas) acts as the swap counterparty in this transaction. DBRS Morningstar’s Long Term COR of AA (high) on BNP Paribas is consistent with the first rating threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

The A (high) (sf) credit rating on the Class B Notes materially deviates from the higher rating implied by the quantitative model. DBRS Morningstar considers a material deviation to be a rating differential of three or more notches between the assigned rating and the rating implied by a quantitative model that is a substantial component of a rating methodology; in this case, the rating addresses the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the final maturity date as defined in the transaction legal documents. DBRS Morningstar typically expects bonds rated in the AA category in the respective rating scenario to be able to pay interest on a timely basis once they are the most senior bond in the transaction.

DBRS Morningstar’s credit ratings on the notes address the credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in accordance with the relevant transaction documents.

DBRS Morningstar’s credit ratings do not address non-payment risk associated with contractual payment obligations contemplated in the applicable transaction documents that are not financial obligations.

DBRS Morningstar’s long-term credit ratings provide opinions on risk of default. DBRS Morningstar considers risk of default to be the risk that an issuer will fail to satisfy the financial obligations in accordance with the terms under which a long-term obligation has been issued.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416784/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the credit ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for these credit ratings include investor reports provided by Santander de Titulización, SGFT, S.A. and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial credit ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the credit rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these credit ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the credit rating process.

The last credit rating action on this transaction took place on 13 October 2022, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its credit ratings of AAA (sf) and A (high) (sf) on the Class A and Class B Notes, respectively.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar credit ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the credit ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the credit ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 1.5% and 14.4%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the credit ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AAA (sf)

Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.

These credit ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Shalva Beshia, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 29 September 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The credit rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (30 June 2023),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416730/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (7 February 2023),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings.
(4 July 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416784/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420572/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (15 September 2023),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420602/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (18 September 2023)
https://dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420754/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology (27 March 2023) and European Asset RMBS Insight Model version 6.0.0.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/411634/european-rmbs-insight-methodology.
-- European RMBS Insight: Spanish Addendum (1 March 2023), https://dbrsmorningstar.com/research/410420/european-rmbs-insight-spanish-addendum
A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.