DBRS Morningstar Upgrades and Confirms Credit Ratings on RevoCar 2022 UG (haftungsbeschränkt)
AutoDBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) took the following credit rating actions on the notes issued by RevoCar 2022 UG (haftungsbeschränkt) (the Issuer):
-- Class A Notes confirmed at AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes upgraded to A (high) (sf) from A (sf)
-- Class C Notes upgraded to A (low) (sf) from BBB (sf)
-- Class D Notes upgraded to BB (high) (sf) from BB (low) (sf)
The credit rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate repayment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in August 2035. The credit ratings on the Class B, Class C, and Class D Notes address the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the legal final maturity date.
CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
The credit rating actions follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the August 2023 payment date;
-- Updated probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables; and
-- Current available credit enhancement to rated notes to cover the expected losses at their respective credit rating levels.
The transaction is a static securitisation of German auto loan receivables originated and serviced by Bank11 für Privatkunden und Handel GmbH (Bank11), granted primarily to private clients for the purchase of both new and used vehicles. The transaction closed in September 2022 with an initial portfolio balance of EUR 500.0 million.
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the August 2023 payment date, loans that were one to two months and two to three months in arrears represented 0.1% and 0.2% of the outstanding portfolio balance, respectively, while loans more than three months in arrears represented 0.2%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.3% of the aggregate initial collateral balance, with cumulative recoveries of 28.3% to date.
PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar received updated historical vintage data from the originator and conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables. DBRS Morningstar updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 1.8% and 54.8%, respectively.
CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior obligations provides credit enhancement to the rated notes in the transaction.
As of the August 2023 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A, Class B, Class C, and Class D Notes increased to 12.4%, 6.9%, 5.6%, and 3.9%, respectively, from 9.5%, 5.3%, 4.3%, and 3.0% as of the DBRS Morningstar initial credit rating in September 2022.
The transaction benefits from an amortising liquidity reserve, available to cover senior fees and expenses, swap payments, and interest payments on the Class A Notes. The reserve has a target balance equal to 0.9% of the outstanding collateral balance, subject to a floor of EUR 1,000,000. As of the August 2023 payment date, the reserve was at its target balance of EUR 3.5 million.
The transaction also features a commingling reserve, funded by Bank11 at closing to EUR 1.2 million. The reserve has a target balance equal to 15.0% of the scheduled collections amount for the next collection period minus the commingling reserve reduction amount. As of the August 2023 payment date, there is no balance to the credit of the commingling reserve account.
BNP Paribas S.A., Frankfurt branch (BNPP Frankfurt) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private credit rating on BNPP Frankfurt, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the credit rating assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.
UniCredit Bank AG acts as the swap counterparty. DBRS Morningstar's private credit rating on UniCredit Bank AG is consistent with the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.
DBRS Morningstar’s credit ratings on the rated notes address the credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in accordance with the relevant transaction documents.
DBRS Morningstar’s credit ratings do not address nonpayment risk associated with contractual payment obligations contemplated in the applicable transaction documents that are not financial obligations.
DBRS Morningstar’s long-term credit ratings provide opinions on risk of default. DBRS Morningstar considers risk of defaults to be the risk that an issuer will fail to satisfy the financial obligations in accordance with the term under which a long-term obligation has been issued.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
There were no Environmental/Social/Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416784/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.
Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.
The principal methodology applicable to the credit ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.
DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.
A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent credit rating action.
For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance credit ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/401817.
The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482.
The sources of data and information used for these credit ratings include investor reports provided by Bank11 and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH. Additionally, DBRS Morningstar was provided with updated historical performance data from the originator as follows:
-- Monthly static default data from March 2016 to July 2023;
-- Monthly static recovery data from March 2016 to July 2023;
-- Monthly dynamic delinquency data from March 2016 to July 2023; and
-- Monthly static and dynamic prepayment data from March 2016 to July 2023.
DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.
At the time of the initial credit ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with one or more third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the credit rating analysis.
DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these credit ratings to be of satisfactory quality.
DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the credit rating process.
This is the first credit rating action since the Initial Rating Date.
The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Daniel Rakhamimov.
Information regarding DBRS Morningstar credit ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.
Sensitivity Analysis: To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the credit ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the credit ratings (the base case):
-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 1.8% and 54.8%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the credit ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the credit rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the credit rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (sf).
Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (sf)
Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BBB (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of BB (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected credit rating of B (sf)
For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://registers.esma.europa.eu/cerep-publication. For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in a central repository, see https://data.fca.org.uk/#/ceres/craStats.
These credit ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.
Lead Analyst: Daniel Rakhamimov, Assistant Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 29 September 2022
DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259
The credit rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (7 February 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409485/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (30 June 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416730/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (15 September 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420602/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (15 September 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420572/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (19 October 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/404212/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (15 July 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/399899/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (18 September 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/420754/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (4 July 2023), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/416784/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.
A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.
For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.
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