DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Certain Notes and Tranche Amounts of Kawartha CAD Ltd., Boreal 2022-1

DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the following provisional ratings on the Tranche A Amount, Tranche B Amount, Tranche C Amount, Tranche D Amount, and Tranche E Amount (collectively, the Tranche Amounts) of two unexecuted, unfunded financial guarantees (the Financial Guarantees) of Kawartha CAD Ltd., Boreal 2022-1 with respect to a portfolio of Canadian commercial real estate (CRE) secured loans originated or managed by the Bank of Montreal (BMO; rated AA with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar):

-- Tranche A Amount at AAA (sf)
-- Tranche B Amount at AA (low) (sf)
-- Tranche C Amount at A (sf)
-- Tranche D Amount at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Tranche E Amount at BB (sf)

The provisional ratings on the Tranche Amounts address the likelihood of a reduction to the respective tranche notional amounts resulting from obligor defaults within the guaranteed portfolio during the period from the Effective Date until the Scheduled Termination Date. For obligors within the guaranteed portfolio, default events are limited to payment default, insolvency, and restructuring events.

DBRS Morningstar also confirmed the following ratings on the Boreal Series 2022-1 Class B Notes (the Class B Notes), the Boreal Series 2022-1 Class C Notes (the Class C Notes), the Boreal Series 2022-1 Class D Notes (the Class D Notes), and the Boreal Series 2022-1 Class E Notes (the Class E Notes) (collectively, the Notes) issued by Kawartha CAD Ltd. (the Issuer) referencing the executed Junior Loan Portfolio Financial Guarantees (the Financial Guarantee), dated as of April 14, 2022, between the Issuer as Guarantor and the Bank of Montreal (BMO; rated AA with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar) as Beneficiary with respect to a portfolio of Canadian CRE secured loans originated or managed by BMO:

-- Class B Notes at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C Notes at A (sf)
-- Class D Notes at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class E Notes at BB (sf)

The ratings on the Notes address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the Scheduled Termination Date (as defined in the Financial Guarantee referenced above). The payment of the interest due to the Notes is subject to the Beneficiary’s ability to pay the Guarantee Fee Amount (as defined in the Financial Guarantee referenced above).

RATING RATIONALE
The rating confirmations are a result of the annual surveillance of the transaction as well as the current performance of the transaction being within DBRS Morningstar’s expectation. Kawartha CAD Ltd., Boreal 2022-1 is a synthetic risk transfer transaction with BMO as Beneficiary.

In its analysis, DBRS Morningstar considered the following:
(1) The Financial Guarantee dated as of April 14, 2022.
(2) The integrity of the transaction structure.
(3) DBRS Morningstar’s assessment of the portfolio quality.
(4) Adequate credit enhancement to withstand projected collateral loss rates.

DBRS Morningstar analyzed the transaction using its CMBS Insight Model and CLO Asset Model, based on certain reference portfolio characteristics, including Eligibility Criteria and Replenishment Criteria, as defined per the Financial Guarantee. The initial reference portfolio consists of well-diversified CRE secured loans across various obligors. The analysis produced satisfactory results, which supported the ratings on the Tranche Amounts and the Notes.

The provisional ratings on the Tranche Amounts take into consideration only the creditworthiness of the reference portfolio. The provisional ratings do not address counterparty risk nor the likelihood of any event of default or termination event under the agreement occurring. BMO bought protection under a similar executed financial guarantee for certain issued notes but has not executed contracts related to the tranche notional amounts.

DBRS Morningstar’s ratings on the Tranche Amounts are expected to remain provisional until the underlying agreements are executed. BMO may have no intention of executing the Financial Guarantees. DBRS Morningstar will maintain and monitor the provisional ratings throughout the life of the transaction or while it continues to receive performance information.

To assess portfolio credit quality, DBRS Morningstar may provide a credit estimate, internal assessment, or ratings mapping of BMO’s internal ratings model. Credit estimates, internal assessments, and ratings mappings are not ratings; rather, they represent an abbreviated analysis, including model-driven or statistical components of default probability for each obligor that is used in assigning a rating to a facility sufficient to assess portfolio credit quality.

The transaction assumptions consider DBRS Morningstar’s baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereign economies, available in its commentary “Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios For Rated Sovereigns: December 2022 Update” (https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/407678), published on December 21, 2022. These baseline macroeconomic scenarios replace DBRS Morningstar’s moderate and adverse COVID-19 pandemic scenarios, which were first published in April 2020.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Environmental Factors
A portion of the portfolio is backed by properties that have been flagged for environmental issues. This Environmental factor has a relevant effect on the credit analysis of the transaction because DBRS Morningstar includes a penalty for the loss given default (LGD) estimate for loans flagged with environmental issues, which increases the estimated required credit enhancement at each rating level.

There were no Social or Governance factors that had a significant or relevant effect on the credit analysis.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929 (May 17, 2022).

Notes:
All figures are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodologies applicable to the credit rating are North American CMBS Multi-Borrower Rating Methodology (March 16, 2023; https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/410913), Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit (February 7, 2023; www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409498), and Mapping Financial Institution Internal Ratings to DBRS Morningstar Ratings for Global Structured Credit Transactions (February 17, 2023; www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/410076).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482.

DBRS Morningstar materially deviated from its principal methodologies when determining the ratings assigned to the Tranche Amounts and the Notes. The LGD assumptions for the CRE Builder Developer portion of the guaranteed portfolio were derived via BMO’s historical realized LGDs, rather than as part of any primary or related methodologies. The material deviation is warranted given that no primary or related methodology governs the application of LGD assumptions for CRE Builder Developer loans.

The rated entity or its related entities did participate in the rating process for this rating action. DBRS Morningstar had access to the accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this rating action.

DBRS, Inc.
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New York, NY 10005 USA
Tel. +1 212 806-3277

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- North American CMBS Multi-Borrower Rating Methodology (March 16, 2023)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/410913

-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit and DBRS Morningstar CLO Asset Model Version 2.3.1 (February 7, 2023) www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409498

-- Cash Flow Assumptions for Corporate Credit Securitizations (February 7, 2023)
www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/409499

-- Legal Criteria for U.S. Structured Finance (December 7, 2022)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/407008

-- Interest Rate Stresses for U.S. Structured Finance Transactions (August 30, 2022)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/402153

-- Operational Risk Assessment for Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) and Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) Managers of Large Corporate Credits (September 23, 2022)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/403042

-- Mapping Financial Institution Internal Ratings to DBRS Morningstar Ratings for Global Structured Credit Transactions (February 17, 2023)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/410076

-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (May 17, 2022)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/396929

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.