DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Cars Alliance Auto Loans Italy 2015 S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA (sf) rating on the Class A Notes issued by Cars Alliance Auto Loans Italy 2015 S.r.l. (the Issuer).

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in December 2031.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses, as of the February 2022 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level;
-- No revolving termination events; and
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

The transaction is a securitisation of Italian auto loan receivables originated by RCI Banque S.A., Italian Branch (RCI Italy). The EUR 2,109.3 million portfolio, as of the February 2022 payment date, consisted of loans granted to both private (95.4% of the discounted collateral balance) and corporate (4.6%) clients for the purchase of new (90.6%) and used (9.4%) vehicles. Most of the receivables have equal monthly instalments; however, 24.1% of loans include a final balloon payment.

The transaction was established in July 2015. In March 2021, an amendment to the transaction was executed, including: a renewal of the revolving period for 36 additional months until March 2024; an increase in the portfolio size partially financed by a new Class A Notes issuance; an increase in the cash reserve amount; a reduction in the coupon for the Class A Notes to 0.75% from 1.0%; an introduction of an optional redemption by the Class A Noteholders if the excess cash trigger is breached; and some adjustments to the concentration limits to allow loans with a balloon instalment to make up a greater proportion of the pool.

REVOLVING PERIOD & CONCENTRATION LIMITS
The revolving period finished on the February 2021 payment date and, subsequently, the Class A Notes were partially amortised by EUR 244.6 million. As part of the March 2021 renewal of the revolving period, this amortised amount was replenished and the notional balance of the Class A Notes increased to EUR 1,834.8 million from EUR 1,112.8 million.

The revolving period will end prematurely if certain performance triggers are breached. To further mitigate the deterioration of the pool, the transaction permits certain concentration limits on the additional portfolios purchased on each payment date. To date, the concentration limits and performance triggers in place have been satisfied. DBRS Morningstar considered a worst-case portfolio composition in its cash flow analysis.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the February 2022 payment date, one- to two-month and two- to three-month delinquencies were 0.1% and 0.0% of the portfolio’s net discounted balance, respectively, while delinquencies greater than three months were 0.1%. Gross cumulative defaults, as a percentage of the original portfolio and cumulative transferred receivables, were 0.9%, with cumulative recoveries of 56.4%.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and maintained its base case PD and LGD assumptions at 1.8% and 83.7% respectively, based on a worst-case portfolio composition as permitted by the concentration limits applicable during the revolving period.

DBRS Morningstar opted to elect mid-range core multiples. The inclusion of incremental balloon stresses means the derived adjusted multiple is above the higher range at a AAA (sf) level.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The portion of the Class J Notes not used to fund the cash reserve provides credit enhancement to the Class A Notes.
As of the February 2022 payment date, the credit enhancement remained stable at 13.0% since the amendment in March 2021.

The transaction benefits from a cash reserve funded through part of the proceeds from the Class J Notes, which is available to cover senior fees and the interest due on the Class A Notes. This reserve has an amortising target equal to 1.0% of the aggregate Class A and Class J Notes balance floored at EUR 1.0 million. The reserve is currently at its target amount of EUR 21.3 million.

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Milan Branch (CACIB-Milan) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on CACIB-Milan, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants, DBRS Morningstar consider the risk arising from the exposure to CACIB-Milan to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The rating is based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 9 December 2021. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/389454/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns-december-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

On 2 November 2021, DBRS Morningstar updated its 8 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the coronavirus crisis on performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated auto ABS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/387320/european-auto-abs-recovery-performance-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2022).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted. Due to the inclusion of a revolving period in the transaction, the analysis continues to consider potential portfolio migration based on replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by EuroTitrisation SA (the Management Company) and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating and in the context of a restructuring in April 2018, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 4 March 2021, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the rating on the Class A Notes at AAA (sf) following an amendment.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Preben Cornelius Overas.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 1.8% and 83.7%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption.
For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf).
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AAA (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf).

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.
DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Preben Cornelius Overas, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 23 July 2015

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (8 February 2022), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/392000/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (29 July 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382171/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (16 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384513/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (16 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384512/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (29 October 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/387042/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (30 July 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382486/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.