DBRS Morningstar Assigns Provisional Ratings to Dilosk RMBS No. 5 DAC

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) assigned the following provisional ratings to the residential mortgage-backed floating-rate notes to be issued by Dilosk RMBS No. 5 DAC (the Issuer):

-- Class A at AAA (sf)
-- Class B at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C at A (low) (sf)
-- Class D at BBB (sf)
-- Class E at BB (high) (sf)
-- Class F at BB (low) (sf)

DBRS Morningstar does not rate the Class X1, X2, Z1, and Z2 notes also expected to be issued in this transaction.

The rating on the Class A notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal. The ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, and Class F notes address the timely payment of interest once most senior and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before the final maturity date.

The provisional ratings are based on information provided to DBRS Morningstar by the Issuer and its agents as of the date of this press release. These ratings will be finalised upon review of the final version of the transaction documents and of the relevant opinions. If the information therein were substantially different, DBRS Morningstar may assign different final ratings to the notes.

RATING RATIONALE
The Issuer is a bankruptcy-remote special-purpose vehicle incorporated in the Republic of Ireland. The proceeds of the notes will be used to fund the purchase of prime and performing Irish owner-occupied (OO) and buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage loans secured over properties located in Ireland. The mortgage loans were originated by Dilosk DAC (Dilosk; the originator and the seller) between 2020 and 2021.

This is the fifth securitisation from Dilosk, following Dilosk RMBS No. 4, which closed in February 2021. The initial mortgage portfolio consists of EUR 258 million of first-lien mortgage loans collateralised by OO and BTL residential properties in Ireland. The mortgages – all originated by Dilosk – have mostly been granted between 2020 and 2021. The transaction will also envisage a prefunding period lasting from closing to the first payment date in March 2022.

The mortgage loans will be serviced by BCMGlobal, trading as Link Asset Services, which was also the delegate servicer in previous Dilosk transactions. Underwriting guidelines are in accordance with market practices observed in Ireland and are subject to the Central Bank of Ireland’s macroprudential mortgage regulations, which specify restrictions on certain lending criteria.

Liquidity in the transaction is provided by the general reserve fund (GRF), which can be used to pay senior costs and interest on the rated notes (but also to clear principal deficiency ledger balances). Liquidity for the Class A notes will be further supported by a liquidity reserve fund (LRF), fully funded at closing and then amortising in line with the Class A notes. Principal receipts from loans can be used to support liquidity for the Class A notes and, after the Class A notes have been redeemed in full, to support the liquidity for the most senior class of notes outstanding (but only after shortfalls are first met from the GRF and the LRF for Class A interest).

Credit enhancement for the Class A notes is calculated at 17.75% and is provided by the subordination of the Class B to Class Z1 notes and the reserve funds. Credit enhancement for the Class B notes is calculated at 9.50% and is provided by the subordination of the Class C to Class Z1 notes and the reserve funds. Credit enhancement for the Class C notes is calculated at 6.0% and is provided by the subordination of the Class D to Class Z1 notes and the reserve funds. Credit enhancement for the Class D notes is calculated at 3.75% and is provided by the subordination of the Class E to Class Z1 notes and the reserve funds. Credit enhancement for the Class E notes is calculated at 2.25% and is provided by the subordination of the Class F and Class Z1 notes and the reserve funds. Credit enhancement for the Class F notes is calculated at 1.50% and is provided by the subordination of the Class Z1 notes and the reserve funds.

A key structural feature is the provisioning mechanism in the transaction that is linked to the arrears status of a loan besides the usual provisioning based on losses. The degree of provisioning increases with the increase in number of months in arrears status of a loan. This is positive for the transaction, as provisioning based on the arrears status traps any excess spread much earlier for a loan that may ultimately end up in foreclosure.

The Issuer entered into a fixed-to-floating swap agreement with Natixis that hedges the interest mismatch between the floating rate paid by the notes and the fixed rate paid by part of the portfolio. Moreover, to mitigate basis risk on the variable interest portion of the portfolio, the servicer is contractually obliged to maintain the standard variable rate rate on the loans at a minimum of the three-month Euribor plus 3.25% for BTL loans and a minimum of three-month Euribor plus 2.40% for OO loans, subject to such variable interest not being less than zero.

Payments will be made directly by the borrowers via direct debit into a collection account held at the BNP Paribas, Dublin Branch. The amounts in the collections account will be transferred to the Issuer account on the following business day. DBRS Morningstar’s private rating on BNP Paribas, Dublin branch in its role as Account Bank is consistent with the threshold for the account bank as outlined in DBRS Morningstar’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology, given the ratings assigned to the notes.

DBRS Morningstar based its ratings on a review of the following analytical considerations:
-- The transaction capital structure and form and sufficiency of available credit enhancement.
-- The credit quality of the mortgage portfolio and the ability of the servicer to perform collection and resolution activities. DBRS Morningstar calculated probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss (EL) outputs on the mortgage portfolio. DBRS Morningstar uses the PD, LGD, and ELs as inputs into the cash flow tool. DBRS Morningstar analysed the mortgage portfolio in accordance with DBRS Morningstar’s “Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda”.
-- The ability of the transaction to withstand stressed cash flow assumptions and repay the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class E, and Class F notes according to the terms of the transaction documents. DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure using Intex DealMaker.
-- The sovereign rating of A (high) with a Positive trend (as of the date of this press release) on the Republic of Ireland.
-- The consistency of the legal structure with DBRS Morningstar’s “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology and the presence of legal opinions addressing the assignment of the assets to the Issuer.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an immediate economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many RMBS transactions. The ratings are based on additional analysis to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. These scenarios were last updated on 8 September 2021. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenario in the below referenced report. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384150/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-for-rated-sovereigns and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

On 14 June 2021, DBRS Morningstar updated its 5 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the coronavirus crisis on performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated RMBS transactions in Europe one year on. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380094/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-european-mortgage-performance-one-year-on and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: “Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda” (17 September 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group releases baseline macroeconomic scenarios for rated sovereigns. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the baseline scenarios as set forth in the following report: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384482/baseline-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings.

The source of data and information used for these ratings was Dilosk. DBRS Morningstar was provided with a loan-by-loan data tape as of 31 August 2021. The data tape is comprehensive and robust for the purpose of the credit analysis
DBRS Morningstar was also provided with the following historical data sets:
-- Aggregated monthly dynamic arrears from April 2017 to June 2021;
-- Aggregated monthly prepayment rates from April 2017 to June 2021;

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

These ratings concern expected-to-be-issued new financial instruments. These are the first DBRS Morningstar ratings on these financial instruments.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared to the parameters used to determine the ratings (the Base Case):
-- In respect of the Class A notes, a PD of 34.3% and LGD of 56.4%, corresponding to the AAA (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD, respectively.
-- In respect of the Class B notes, a PD of 23.6% and LGD of 41.9%, corresponding to the AA (low) (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD, respectively.
-- In respect of the Class C notes, a PD of 17.5% and LGD of 36.7%, corresponding to the A (low) (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD, respectively.
-- In respect of the Class D notes, a PD of 14.3% and LGD of 30.2%, corresponding to the BBB (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD, respectively.
-- In respect of the Class E notes, a PD of 10.4% and LGD of 24.2%, corresponding to the BB (high) (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD, respectively.
-- In respect of the Class F notes, a PD of 8.3% and LGD of 18.6%, corresponding to the BB (low) (sf) rating scenario, was stressed assuming a 25% and 50% increase in the PD and LGD, respectively.

DBRS Morningstar concludes the following impact on the rated notes:

Class A:
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to AA (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to AA (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes at AA (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the ratings of the Class A notes to AA (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to AA (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to AA (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to A (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class A notes to A (sf).

Class B:
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to downgrade of the Class B notes to A (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to A (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to AA (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the ratings of the Class B notes to A (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to A (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to BBB (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to BBB (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class B notes to BBB (sf).

Class C:
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BBB (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BBB (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BBB (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BBB (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BBB (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BBB (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BBB (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class C notes to BB (high) (sf).

Class D:
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BBB (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BB (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BBB (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BB (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BB (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BB (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BB (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class D notes to BB (low) (sf).

Class E:
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead downgrade of the Class E notes to BB (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class E notes to B (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to downgrade of the Class E notes to BB (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class E notes to BB (low) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class E notes to B (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class E notes to B (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class E notes to B (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class E notes to B (sf).

Class F:
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead downgrade of the Class F notes to B (high) (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class F notes to B (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to downgrade of the Class F notes to B (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class F notes to CCC (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class F notes to B (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 25% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class F notes to CCC (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 25%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class F notes to CCC (sf).
-- A hypothetical increase of the base case PD by 50% and LGD by 50%, ceteris paribus, would lead to a downgrade of the Class F notes to CCC (sf).

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Ronja Dahmen, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 5 October 2021

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (17 September 2021) and European RMBS Credit Model v 1.0.0.0, https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384582/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (29 July 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/382171/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (16 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384512/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (16 September2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384513/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (24 September 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/384920/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.