Baseline Macroeconomic Scenarios: Application to Credit Ratings

This commentary updates the April 22, 2020, commentary entitled “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: Application to Credit Ratings.” This update follows on from the retirement of the moderate and adverse macroeconomic scenarios.

We are now of the opinion that historical experience and past recessions provide an adequate guide for the future effects of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic in most sectors. As such, we will no longer make adjustments in our analysis by reference to a specific macroeconomic scenario. As has always been the case, analytical groups will continue to determine appropriate assumptions, which may include adjustments to expected performance, for each sector and credit in light of its specific circumstances.