Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms Santander Totta S.A. Covered Bonds (Obrigações Hipotecárias - Mortgages) at AA (low)

Covered Bonds

July 16, 2021

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AA (low) ratings on the Obrigações Hipotecárias (OH; the Portuguese legislative Covered Bonds) issued under the Banco Santander Totta S.A. (Totta or the Issuer) EUR 12.5 billion OH programme (the Programme). The confirmation follows the completion of a full review of the Programme.

Concurrently, DBRS Morningstar discontinued its rating on Series 16, which matured on 24 February 2021.

There are 10 series of OH outstanding under the Programme totalling a nominal amount of EUR 8.60 billion.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of “A”, which is the Long-Term Issuer Rating of Totta. Totta is the Issuer of and Reference Entity for the Programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Average” associated with the Programme.
-- An LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L) of “A”.
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A committed minimum overcollateralisation (OC) of 15%. DBRS Morningstar gives full credit to such commitment in accordance with its principal methodology. Such level is not subject to a haircut as DBRS Morningstar considers it to be persistent based on historically observed levels.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction using its European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses, and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the cover pool (CP).

Everything else being equal, a downgrade of the CBAP by one notch would lead to a downgrade of the LSF-L by one notch, resulting in a downgrade of the Covered Bonds (CB) ratings by one notch. In addition, all else unchanged, the OH ratings would be downgraded if the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.

The aggregated outstanding balance of the CP backing the Issuer’s OH was EUR 10.01 billion as at 31 March 2021, while the total amount of liabilities outstanding is EUR 8.60 billion, yielding a current nominal OC ratio of 16.3%. The Issuer has publicly committed to maintaining an OC level of 15.0%.

As at 31 March 2021, the CP amounted to EUR 10.01 billion and was composed of 179,274 residential mortgage loans with an average loan amount of EUR 55,810. The CP has a weighted-average (WA) current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 54.6%, a WA seasoning of 104 months, and a WA remaining time to maturity of 321 months. The CP is located mainly in Lisbon (37.2% by outstanding balance), Northern Portugal (31.3%), and Central Portugal (17.5%). All loans were originated for the purpose of acquiring first or second homes.

The vast majority of the loans in the CP (approximately 99%) are floating rate, indexed to different bases and reset at different times, while all OH series are fixed rate. The interest rate mismatch is mitigated by intra-group swap agreements; however, the swap documentation is not consistent with DBRS Morningstar’s “Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology. As such, no credit was given to swaps in DBRS Morningstar’s analysis, and the interest rate mismatch has been taken into account in DBRS Morningstar’s analysis.

The DBRS Morningstar-calculated WA life of the mortgage assets is roughly 16 years based on a 0% prepayment rate, which is longer than the 4.8 years of WA life on the OH, not accounting for any maturity extension. This risk is mitigated by the extended maturity date, which falls one year after the maturity date, and by the OC in place.

All CP assets and CB are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign-exchange risk.

DBRS Morningstar has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Average” according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS Morningstar’s publications, “DBRS Assigns LSF Assessment to Portuguese Covered Bonds” and “Portuguese Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review,” both available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading in some cases to increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many cover pools, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and, where appropriate, adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. In the cover pool analysis of this programme, DBRS Morningstar incorporated an increase in probability of default for certain borrower characteristics.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 18 June 2021. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380281/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 14 June 2021, DBRS Morningstar updated its 5 May 2020 commentary outlining the impact of the coronavirus crisis on performance of DBRS Morningstar-rated residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions in Europe one year on. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/380094/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-european-mortgage-performance-one-year-on and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360599/european-rmbs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds (10 June 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the surveillance section of the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/381451/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor reports and loan-by-loan data on the CP as at 31 March 2021, and static delinquencies (90 days+) by vintage of origination, spanning from 2003 to Q1 2016 and dynamic arrears data on the vintages 2000 to Q1 2021, provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 28 October 2020, when DBRS Morningstar assigned a AA (low) rating to Series 26 and discontinued its rating on Series 15.

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Tomás Rodriguez-Vigil Junco.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Tomás Rodriguez-Vigil Junco, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 27 February 2012

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The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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