DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Quinto Sistema Sec. 2017 S.r.l.

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its ratings on the Class A and Class B1 Notes issued by Quinto Sistema Sec. 2017 S.r.l. (the Issuer) at AA (low) (sf) and A (sf), respectively.

The ratings address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal by the final maturity date.

The confirmations follow an annual review of the transaction and are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults and losses as of the June 2021 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels; and
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Quinto Sistema Sec. 2017 S.r.l. is a securitisation of a pool of receivables related to salary and pension assignment loans as well as payment delegation loans granted by five original lenders (Sigla S.p.A., Pitagora S.p.A., Figenpa S.p.A., ADV Finance S.p.A., and Spefin Finanziaria S.p.A.) to Italian employees and pensioners. The portfolio was transferred to Banca Sistema S.p.A. (Banca Sistema) before being sold to the Issuer. Banca Sistema services the portfolio, with Banca Finanziaria Internazionale S.p.A. appointed as backup servicer. The transaction had an initial ramp-up period, which terminated on February 2019, during which the Issuer purchased additional portfolios. The notes were issued in a partially paid form.

An amendment to the notes’ amortisation mechanism took place on July 2018, after DBRS Morningstar’s initial rating date (14 June 2018).
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

As of the April 2021 cut-off date, loans that were two to three months in arrears represented 1.5% of the outstanding portfolio balance, slightly up from 1.1% as of the April 2020 cut-off date. The 90+ delinquency ratio was also 1.5%, up from 1.3% as of April 2020. The gross cumulative default ratio was equal to 7.4% of the initial portfolio balance (including additional receivables), increasing from 5.2% last year.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 8.7% and 0.1%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
Overcollateralisation of the outstanding collateral portfolio provides credit enhancement. As of the June 2021 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A and Class B1 Notes was 29.1% and 8.1%, respectively, up from 19.4% and 5.1%, respectively, as of the June 2020 payment date.

The transaction benefits from an amortising cash reserve, available to cover senior fees, expenses, and missed interest payments on the rated notes. The reserve is currently at its target level of EUR 2.9 million, or 1.20% of the collateral portfolio outstanding principal.

The transaction also features a prepayment reserve, available to cover losses arising from the set-off of capitalised fees. The reserve is currently at its target level of EUR 3.6 million, or 1.50% of the collateral portfolio outstanding principal.

BNP Paribas Securities Services, Milan branch acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the private rating of the account bank, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may continue to increase in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and, where appropriate, adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For this transaction, DBRS Morningstar conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transaction benefit from sufficient liquidity support to withstand potential payment holidays in the portfolio.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 17 March 2021. For details, see the following commentaries:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/375376/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-march-2021-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus is likely to affect the DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The high exposure to public-sector employees, pensioners, and civil servants makes the transaction dependent on the creditworthiness of the Italian sovereign. DBRS Morningstar considers some of the key drivers behind the latest rating action on Italy - namely Institutional Strength, Governance & Transparency (G), and Human Capital and Human Rights (S) - to be significant rating factors. According to the latest World Bank governance indicators, Italy ranks in the 62nd percentile for Rule of Law in 2019 and, according to the International Monetary Fund, Italy’s GDP per capita of USD 33,200 in 2019 was low compared with its euro-area peers. These factors were taken into account in the Economic Structure and Performance and Political Environment building block of DBRS Morningstar’s Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (8 February 2021).

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at:
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include servicer reports provided by Banca Sistema, payment and investor reports provided by Banca Finanziaria Internazionale S.p.A., and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 6 April 2021, when DBRS Morningstar upgraded the ratings on the Class A and Class B1 Notes to AA (low) (sf) and A (sf) from A (high) (sf) and A (low) (sf), respectively, following the finalisation of the updated “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” methodology. Prior to that, on 4 June 2020, DBRS Morningstar confirmed its A (high) (sf) and A (low) (sf) ratings on the Class A and Class B1 Notes, respectively.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios, as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the Base Case):
-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 8.7% and 0.1%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AA (low) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected remain at AA (low) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

Class B1 Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

These ratings are endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom.

Lead Analyst: Daniele Canestrari, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 14 June 2018

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main – Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (6 April 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/376314/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (8 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373435/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (19 November 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/370270/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (3 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366294/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (21 July 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364305/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings (3 February 2021), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262/dbrs-morningstar-criteria-approach-to-environmental-social-and-governance-risk-factors-in-credit-ratings.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.