DBRS Morningstar Removes Under Review with Negative Implication Status and Confirms Ratings on Manitoulin USD Ltd., Muskoka 2019-1

DBRS, Inc. (DBRS Morningstar) removed the Under Review with Negative Implications status and confirmed the AAA (sf), A (low) (sf), and BB (high) (sf) provisional ratings on the Tranche A Amount, the Tranche B Amount, and the Tranche C Amount, respectively (collectively, the Tranche Amounts), of two unexecuted, unfunded financial guarantees (the Financial Guarantees) with respect to a portfolio of primarily U.S. and Canadian senior secured or senior unsecured loans originated or managed by Bank of Montreal (BMO; rated AA with a Stable trend by DBRS Morningstar) and to be issued by Manitoulin USD Ltd., Muskoka 2019-1 (Manitoulin or the Issuer).

The provisional ratings on the Tranche Amounts address the likelihood of a reduction to the respective Tranche Amounts caused by a Tranche Loss Balance on each respective tranche, resulting from defaults and losses within the guaranteed portfolio during the period from the Effective Date until the Scheduled Termination Date (as defined in the Financial Guarantees).

DBRS Morningstar’s ratings are expected to remain provisional until the underlying agreements are executed. BMO may have no intention of executing the Financial Guarantees. DBRS Morningstar will maintain and monitor the provisional ratings throughout the life of the transaction or while it continues to receive performance information.

DBRS Morningstar also removed the Under Review with Negative Implications status and confirmed its ratings on the Muskoka Series 2019-1 Class B Guarantee Linked Notes (the Class B Notes) at A (low) (sf), the Muskoka Series 2019-1 Class C Guarantee Linked Notes (the Class C Notes) at BB (high) (sf), and the Muskoka Series 2019-1 Class D Guarantee Linked Notes (the Class D Notes; together, with the Class B Notes and Class C Notes, the Notes) at B (high) (sf). Manitoulin issued the Notes referencing the executed Junior Loan Portfolio Financial Guarantee dated as of January 30, 2019, between Manitoulin as Guarantor and BMO as Beneficiary with respect to a portfolio of primarily U.S. and Canadian senior secured and senior unsecured loans.

The ratings on the Notes address the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the Scheduled Termination Date (as defined in the Financial Guarantees). The payment of the interest due to the Notes is subject to the Beneficiary’s ability to pay the Guarantee Fee Amount (as defined in the Financial Guarantees).

To assess portfolio credit quality, DBRS Morningstar may provide a credit estimate, internal assessment, or ratings mapping of the Beneficiary’s internal ratings model for each corporate obligor in the portfolio. Credit estimates, internal assessments, and ratings mappings are not ratings; rather, they represent an abbreviated analysis, including model-driven or statistical components of default probability for each obligor that is used in assigning a rating to a facility sufficient to assess portfolio credit quality.

On the Effective Date (as defined in the Financial Guarantees), the Issuer will use the proceeds of the issue of the Notes to make a deposit into the Cash Deposit Accounts with the Cash Deposit Bank. DBRS Morningstar may review the ratings on the Notes in the event of a downgrade of the Cash Deposit Bank below certain thresholds, as defined in the transaction documents.

As the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) spread around the world, certain countries imposed quarantines and lockdowns, including the U.S., which accounts for more than one-quarter of confirmed cases worldwide. The coronavirus pandemic has negatively affected not only the economies of the nations most afflicted but also the overall global economy, with diminished demand for goods and services as well as disrupted supply chains. The effects of the pandemic may result in deteriorated financial conditions for many companies and obligors, some of which will experience the effects of such negative economic trends more than others. At the same time, governments and central banks in multiple regions, including the U.S. and Europe, have taken significant measures to mitigate the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

In conjunction with DBRS Morningstar’s commentary, “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: Implications for Credit Ratings,” published on April 16, 2020, and its updated commentary “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: January 2021 Update,” published on January 28, 2021, DBRS Morningstar further considers additional adjustments to assumptions for the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) asset class in the moderate economic scenario outlined in the commentaries. The adjustments include a higher default assumption for the weighted-average credit quality of the current collateral obligation portfolio. To derive the higher default assumption, DBRS Morningstar notches ratings for obligors in certain industries and obligors at various rating levels based on their perceived exposure to the adverse disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Considering a higher default assumption would result in losses that exceed the original default expectations for the affected classes of notes. DBRS Morningstar may adjust the default expectations further if the duration or severity of the adverse disruptions caused by the coronavirus change.

DBRS Morningstar ran an additional higher default adjustment on the current collateral obligation pool and then ran this adjusted modeling pool through the DBRS Morningstar CLO Asset Model to generate a stressed default rate. The results of this adjustment indicate that the ratings can withstand an additional higher default stress commensurate with a moderate-scenario impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

For more information regarding DBRS Morningstar’s simplified set of macroeconomic scenarios for select economies related to the coronavirus, please see its April 16, 2020, commentary “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: Implications for Credit Ratings” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359679; its April 22, 2020, commentary “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: Application to Credit Ratings” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903; and its January 28, 2021, commentary “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: January 2021 Update” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/372842.

For more information regarding DBRS Morningstar’s additional adjustment for select industries related to the coronavirus, please see its May 18, 2020, commentary, “CLO Risk Exposure to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)” at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361112.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework can be found in the DBRS Morningstar Criteria: Approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk Factors in Credit Ratings at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373262.

Notes:
All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodologies are Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit (February 8, 2021) and Mapping Financial Institution Internal Ratings to DBRS Morningstar Ratings for Global Structured Credit Transactions (March 11, 2020), which can be found on dbrsmorningstar.com under Methodologies & Criteria.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

The rated entity or its related entities did participate in the rating process for this rating action. DBRS Morningstar had access to the accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this rating action.

Please see the related appendix for additional information regarding the sensitivity of assumptions used in the rating process.

This rating is endorsed by DBRS Ratings Limited for use in the United Kingdom, and by DBRS Ratings GmbH for use in the European Union, respectively. The following additional regulatory disclosures apply to endorsed ratings:

Each of the principal asset class methodologies employed in the analysis addressed one or more particular risks or aspects of the rating and were factored into the rating decision. Specifically, for the recovery rate, DBRS Morningstar applied the senior secured and senior unsecured recovery rates defined in its “Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit” methodology (February 8, 2021). DBRS Morningstar applies different recovery rates depending on the recovery tier and seniority.

DBRS Morningstar used its CLO Asset Model to determine expected default rates for the portfolio at each rating level. To determine the credit risk of each underlying reference obligation, DBRS Morningstar relied on either public ratings or a ratings mapping to DBRS Morningstar ratings of BMO’s internal ratings models. The mapping was completed in accordance with DBRS Morningstar’s “Mapping Financial Institution Internal Ratings to DBRS Morningstar Ratings for Global Structured Credit Transactions” methodology (March 11, 2020).

The last rating action on this transaction took place on October 2, 2020.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml. DBRS Morningstar understands further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates may be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on its webpage: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/credit-rating-agencies.

Lead Analyst: Quan Yoon, Vice President, U.S. Structured Credit
Rating Committee Chair: Jerry van Koolbergen, Managing Director, U.S. Structured Credit
Initial Rating Date: January 24, 2019

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

DBRS, Inc.
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New York, NY 10005 USA
Tel. +1 212 806-3277

-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit and DBRS Morningstar CLO Asset Model Version 2.2.3 (February 8, 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373423/rating-clos-and-cdos-of-large-corporate-credit

-- Cash Flow Assumptions for Corporate Credit Securitizations (February 8, 2021),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/373422/cash-flow-assumptions-for-corporate-credit-securitizations

-- Operational Risk Assessment for Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) and Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) Managers of Large Corporate Credits (September 22, 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366977/operational-risk-assessment-for-collateralized-loan-obligation-clo-and-collateralized-debt-obligation-cdo-managers-of-large-corporate-credits

-- Interest Rate Stresses for U.S. Structured Finance Transactions (October 23, 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/368786/interest-rate-stresses-for-us-structured-finance-transactions

-- Legal Criteria for U.S. Structured Finance (December 21, 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/371685/legal-criteria-for-us-structured-finance

-- Mapping Financial Institution Internal Ratings to DBRS Morningstar Ratings for Global Structured Credit Transactions (March 11, 2020)
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357853/mapping-financial-institution-internal-ratings-to-dbrs-morningstar-ratings-for-global-structured-credit-transactions