DBRS Morningstar Confirms A (low) Rating of Banca Carige S.p.A. Covered Bonds (OBG - Mortgages - Programme 2)

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its A (low) rating of the obbligazioni bancarie garantite (OBG; the Italian legislative covered bonds) issued under the EUR 5,000,000,000 Banca Carige S.p.A. Covered Bonds Programme (Carige OBG2 or the Programme). This rating action follows the completion of a full review of the Programme.

As of today, there is one series of OBG, guaranteed by Carige Covered Bond 2 S.r.l., totalling an outstanding nominal amount of EUR 195 million under the Programme.

The rating reflects the following analytical considerations:

-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) reflective of the likelihood that the source of payments will switch from the Reference Entity (RE) to the cover pool (CP). Banca Carige S.p.A. (Carige) is the Issuer and RE for the Programme. DBRS Morningstar classifies Italy as a jurisdiction in which covered bonds are a particularly important funding instrument and deems the CP strategic for the core activity of the Issuer.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Adequate” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of AA (low), being the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of BBB.
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A committed minimum overcollateralisation (OC) of 32%, as expressed in the investor report, and the 64.0% OC to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, equal to the minimum observed in the past 12 months, adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.90.

The transaction was analysed using the DBRS Morningstar European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets and interest rate stresses. In accordance with DBRS Morningstar’s “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodology, no forced asset liquidation has been considered for this transaction, given the conditional pass-through structure, and DBRS Morningstar has assumed several prepayment scenarios.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the CB rating.

In addition, all else unchanged, the CB rating would be downgraded if any of the following were to occur: (1) the CPCA were downgraded below AA (low); (2) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme were downgraded; or (3) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.

Following an Issuer default, and if there are no sufficient funds to redeem in full any OBG Series at the relevant Maturity Date, such a Series becomes payable according to a pass-through structure, and its maturity is automatically extended up to the relevant Extended Maturity Date.

Series 635, the only Series currently outstanding under the Programme, has a maturity date extendable by 33 years.

BNP Paribas Securities Services SCA, London Branch acts as the Transaction Bank and Cash Reserve Account Bank. Based on its private rating and on the replacement provisions included in the documentation, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk of such counterparty to be consistent with the ratings assigned, in accordance with its “Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions” and “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodologies.

The total outstanding amount of OBG is currently EUR 195 million, while the aggregate balance of the CP, as at 30 September 2020, was EUR 401 million of commercial (86.1%) and residential (13.9%) mortgages plus EUR 34 million of cash collections, resulting in a total OC of 106.2%.

As of September 2020, the CP comprised 2,486 mortgage loans originated by network banks that are part of the Banca Carige Group. The weighted-average current loan-to-value of the mortgages was 32.7% with an average seasoning of 6.6 years. The assets securing the loans in the CP are located mainly in Liguria (43.8%) and Tuscany (16.6%).

The CP comprised fixed-for-life loans (22.3% by outstanding balance) and floating-rate loans (77.7%). The floating-rate mortgage loans are indexed to different plain-vanilla indices and reset at different dates. In comparison, 100% of the liabilities pay a floating rate linked to three-month Euribor. The resulting interest and basis risks are not hedged. This has been taken into account in DBRS Morningstar’s cash flow analysis.

All CP assets and OBG are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign exchange risk.

The weighted-average life (WAL) of the CP is 5.2 years, whereas the WAL of the OBG is 2.0 years, taking into account the expected maturity. The resulting asset-liability maturity mismatch is mitigated by the 33-year maturity extension and by the OC.

DBRS Morningstar has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Adequate”, according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to the DBRS Morningstar commentary “Italian Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite Legal and Structuring Framework”, which is available on https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/.

On 2 November 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a Request for Comments on the “European RMBS Insight: Italian Addendum”. If the proposed methodology addendum was adopted without any changes, to replace the “Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology: Italian Addendum”, no rating impact is expected on the rating of the CB Series outstanding under this Programme.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may increase in the coming months for many CPs, some meaningfully. The rating is based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. In the CP analysis of this programme, DBRS Morningstar assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 24 April 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated covered bonds in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359987/covid-19-the-impact-on-european-covered-bonds and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” (27 April 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was limited to an amendment of Series 635 final terms regarding a postponement of the maturity date from February 2021 to October 2022. The other legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include historical performance data (static pool default and recovery data from 2006 to 2020; dynamic pool delinquency and prepayments data from 2005 to 2020) and loan-level and stratification information on the CP as at 30 September 2020 provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purpose of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 13 November 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its A (low) rating on the Series 635 outstanding under the Programme.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Antonio Laudani, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 13 November 2017

DBRS Ratings GmbH, Sucursal en España
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Tel. +34 (91) 903 6500

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds (27 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360260/rating-and-monitoring-covered-bonds.
-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads (27 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360263/rating-and-monitoring-covered-bonds-addendum-market-value-spreads.
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations (8 June 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362170/global-methodology-for-rating-banks-and-banking-organisations.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (21 September 2020) and European RMBS Credit Model v 1.0.0.0,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366958/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators (30 September 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367603/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-originators.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit (21 July 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364310/rating-clos-and-cdos-of-large-corporate-credit.
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs (30 September 2020) and DBRS Diversity Model v2.4,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367642/rating-clos-backed-by-loans-to-european-smes.
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (28 September 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/367292/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments (27 July 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.