DBRS Morningstar Takes Rating Actions on Two Santander Consumer Spain Auto Transactions

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) took the following rating actions on the notes issued by FTA Santander Consumer Spain Auto 2014-1 (SCSA 2014-1) and FT Santander Consumer Spain Auto 2016-1 (SCSA 2016-1):

SCSA 2014-1:
-- Class A confirmed at A (high) (sf)
-- Class B confirmed at A (high) (sf)
-- Class C upgraded to A (sf) from A (low) (sf)
-- Class D upgraded to A (low) (sf) from BBB (sf)
-- Class E confirmed at C (sf)

SCSA 2016-1:
-- Series A confirmed at AA (sf)
-- Series B confirmed at AA (sf)
-- Series C upgraded to AA (low) (sf) from A (high) (sf)
-- Series D upgraded to A (sf) from A (low) (sf)

For SCSA 2014-1, the rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in June 2032. The ratings on the Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E Notes address the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

For SCSA 2016-1, the rating on the Series A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in April 2032. The ratings on the Series B, Series C, and Series D Notes address the ultimate payment of interest and principal on or before the legal final maturity date.

The rating actions follow an annual review of the transactions and are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the most recent payment dates;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables.
-- Current available credit enhancement to the rated notes to cover the expected losses at their respective rating levels;
-- Current economic environment and an assessment of sustainable performance, as a result of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
-- The rating of the Class E Notes issued by SCSA 2014-1 is based on DBRS Morningstar’s review of the following considerations: (1) the Class E Notes are in the first-loss position and, as such, are highly likely to default, and (2) given the characteristics of the Class E Notes as defined in the transaction documents, the default most likely would only be recognised at the maturity or early termination of the transaction.

SCSA 2014-1 and SCSA 2016-1 are securitisations of Spanish auto loan receivables originated and serviced by Santander Consumer E.F.C., S.A. (SC, the Servicer, or the Originator), a subsidiary of Santander Consumer Finance, S.A. (SCF). SCSA 2014-1 closed in November 2014 with an initial portfolio of EUR 760.0 million and included a four-year revolving period, which ended in December 2018. SCSA 2016-1 closed in March 2016 with an initial portfolio of EUR 765.0 million and included a 40-month revolving period, which ended in July 2019.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
-- SCSA 2014-1: As of the September 2020 payment date, loans 30 to 60 days and 60 to 90 days in arrears represented 0.8% and 0.6% of the outstanding portfolio balance, while loans greater than 90 days in arrears represented 1.8%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 1.0% of the aggregate initial portfolios balance, of which 27.6% has been recovered to date.

-- SCSA 2016-1: As of the October 2020 payment date, loans 30 to 60 days and 60 to 90 days in arrears represented 1.1% and 0.7% of the outstanding portfolio balance, while loans greater than 90 days in arrears represented 2.1%. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 0.9% of the aggregate initial portfolios balance, of which 20.4% has been recovered to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions as follows:
-- For SCSA 2014-1, the base case PD and LGD assumptions were updated to 4.9% and 41.3%, respectively.
-- For SCSA 2016-1, the base case PD and LGD assumptions were updated to 4.9% and 41.9%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the respective junior obligations and cash reserves provides credit enhancement to the rated notes. The transactions continue to deleverage steadily, resulting in increased credit enhancement available to the rated notes.

As of the September 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A, Class B, Class C, and Class D Notes in SCSA 2014-1 increased to 27.9%, 19.9%, 15.4%, and 11.2%, respectively, from 17.3%, 12.3%, 9.6%, and 6.9%, respectively, at the time of the last annual review. The Class E Notes, which were used to fund the cash reserve, do not benefit from any credit enhancement.

As of the October 2020 payment date, credit enhancement to the Series A, Series B, Series C, and Series D Notes in SCSA 2016-1 increased to 29.7%, 22.7%, 13.1%, and 7.9%, respectively, from 21.2%, 16.2%, 9.3%, and 5.6%, respectively, at the time of the last annual review.

SCSA 2014-1 benefits from an amortising reserve fund, funded to EUR 38.0 million at closing, available to cover senior fees, interest, and principal payments on the Class A through Class D notes. Once four years have passed since the end of the revolving period, the reserve will begin to amortise to a target of 10% of the outstanding balance of the Class A through Class D Notes, subject to a floor of EUR 19.0 million. As of the September 2020 payment date, the reserve was at its target level of EUR 38.0 million.

SCSA 2016-1 benefits from a nonamortising reserve fund, funded to EUR 15.3 million at closing, available to cover senior fees, interest, and principal payments on the Series A through Series D Notes. As of the October 2020 payment date, the reserve was at its target level of EUR 15.3 million.

To mitigate any disruptions in payments due to the replacement of the Servicer or the risk that the Servicer fails to transfer the collections, the transaction documents include the provision for the funding of liquidity and commingling reserves. These were unfunded at closing and will only be funded if the DBRS Morningstar rating of SC’s parent company, SCF, falls below specific thresholds, or SCF’s ownership share in SC decreases below a certain threshold. These reserves continue to be unfunded, as none of the rating triggers have been breached to date.

SCF acts as the account bank for the transactions. Based on the DBRS Morningstar private rating of SCF, the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structures, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the ratings assigned to the notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

The transaction structures were analysed in Intex DealMaker.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may increase in the coming months for many ABS transactions, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

For these transactions, DBRS Morningstar applied an additional haircut to its base case recovery rate and conducted additional sensitivity analysis to determine that the transactions benefits from sufficient liquidity support to withstand high levels of payment moratoriums in the portfolios. Actual payment moratoriums are currently at a low level:
-- For SCSA 2014-1, moratoriums are equal to 5.8% of the outstanding portfolio balance as of September 2020.
-- For SCSA 2016-1, moratoriums are equal to 6.6% of the outstanding portfolio balance as of October 2020.

On 16 April 2020, the DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were last updated on 10 September 2020. For details, see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-september-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. The DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 8 May 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated ABS transactions in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/360734/european-abs-transactions-risk-exposure-to-coronavirus-covid-19-effect and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (22 April 2020). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transactions in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transactions legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in these transactions are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Morningstar Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364527/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include investor and servicer reports provided by Santander de Titulización, S.G.F.T., S.A. (the Management Company) and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH, as well as updated historical performance data available from the Originator.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

For SCSA 2014-1, at the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis. For SCSA 2016-1, at the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on SCSA 2014-1 took place on 18 November 2019, when DBRS Morningstar upgraded the ratings on the Class A, Class B, Class C, and Class D notes to A (high) (sf), A (high) (sf), A (low) (sf), and BBB (sf) from A (sf), BBB (sf), BB (sf), and B (sf), respectively, and confirmed the rating on the Class E Notes at C (sf).

The last rating action on SCSA 2016-1 took place on 5 February 2020, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the rating on the Series A Notes at AA (sf), and upgraded the ratings on the Series B, Series C, and Series D Notes to AA (sf), A (high) (sf), and A (low) (sf) from A (high) (sf), BBB (high) (sf), and BB (high) (sf), respectively.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the ratings, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the ratings (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- SCSA 2014-1: the base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans are 4.9% and 41.3%, respectively.
-- SCSA 2016-1: the base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans are 4.9% and 41.9%, respectively.

-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the SCSA 2014-1 Class A Notes would be expected to remain at A (high) (sf), ceteris paribus. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating of the SCSA 2014-1 Class A Notes would be expected to remain at A (high) (sf), ceteris paribus. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the SCSA 2014-1 Class A Notes would be expected to remain at A (high) (sf).

SCSA 2014-1 Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

SCSA 2014-1 Class B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)

SCSA 2014-1 Class C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)

SCSA 2014-1 Class D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)

The rating on the SCSA 2014-1 Class E Notes would not be affected by a change in either the PD or the LGD.

SCSA 2016-1 Series A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)

SCSA 2016-1 Series B Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)

SCSA 2016-1 Series C Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)

SCSA 2016-1 Series D Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BB (high) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Daniel Rakhamimov, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 21 November 2014 (SCSA 2014-1); 10 March 2016 (SCSA 2016-1)

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of these transactions can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (22 April 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359884/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology.
-- Rating European Structured Finance Transactions Methodology (21 July 2020),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/364305/rating-european-structured-finance-transactions-methodology.
-- Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations (3 September 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366294/rating-european-consumer-and-commercial-asset-backed-securitisations.
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions.
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on these credits or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.