DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings with Negative Trends on BX Trust 2018-GW

DBRS Limited (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed the ratings on the Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2018-GW issued by BX Trust 2018-GW (the Trust) as follows:

-- Class A at AAA (sf)
-- Class B at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C at A (high) (sf)
-- Class X-EXT at A (low) (sf)
-- Class D at BBB (high) (sf)
-- Class E at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class F at BB (low) (sf)
-- Class G at B (low) (sf)

All trends are Negative because the underlying collateral continues to face performance challenges associated with the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) global pandemic. The ratings have been removed from Under Review with Negative Implications, where they were placed on March 27, 2020.

On March 1, 2020, DBRS Morningstar finalized its “North American Single-Asset/Single-Borrower Ratings Methodology” (the NA SASB Methodology), which presents the criteria for which ratings are assigned to and/or monitored for North American single-asset/single-borrower (NA SASB) transactions, large concentrated pools, rake certificates, ground lease transactions, and credit tenant lease transactions. For further information on the NA SASB Methodology, please see the press release dated March 1, 2020, at www.dbrsmorningstar.com. On March 27, 2020, DBRS Morningstar placed the ratings on its outstanding SASB transactions secured by hospitality properties Under Review with Negative Implications as the global shelter-in-place and travel restrictions related to the coronavirus have had an extreme impact on the short-term performance of this asset class. For further information on these rating actions, please see the DBRS Morningstar press release dated March 27, 2020.

As it reviewed the ratings for this transaction, DBRS Morningstar considered both the impact of the updated NA SASB Methodology and its scenarios attributable to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic on the ratings.

Because of the coronavirus’ significant impact on hospitality performance, DBRS Morningstar first considered the application of the updated NA SASB Methodology in conjunction with the “North American CMBS Surveillance Methodology” to arrive at a baseline result, which incorporated qualitative assumptions, capitalization rates, and loan-to-value (LTV) ratio sizing benchmark quality/volatility adjustments and excluded any potential changes in current or future expected asset performance resulting from the coronavirus.

DBRS Morningstar then overlaid scenarios incorporating market value declines (MVDs) consistent with the projections in its “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: September Update” published on September 10, 2020, on top of the baseline result to determine the impact of coronavirus-related changes in asset performance on the subject transaction on a tranche-by-tranche basis. For more information on these stress scenarios, please refer to the Coronavirus Impact Analysis section of this document. The global macroeconomic scenarios include a moderate decline of 15% for all commercial real estate (CRE), which acts as an average for all CRE property types. However, DBRS Morningstar expects a higher stress for hospitality properties, ranging from 25% to 45% based on the type of demand segmentation and asset location, and expects corporate demand and remote fly-to locations to be at the higher end of the value decline.

LOAN/PROPERTY OVERVIEW
The subject loan consists of a $510.5 million first mortgage and $289.5 million in mezzanine debt, totalling $800.0 million in financing. The collateral for this transaction is the Grand Wailea, a 776-key luxury beachfront resort located in Maui. There are an additional 120 villas that are third-party owned and are not collateral; however, 62 participate in a rental management program whereby the hotel receives a fee for use of its amenity space. The underlying loan is interest-only (IO) throughout the term, structured with an initial 24-month term and five one-year extension options. The Borrower executed its first extension option in April 2020.

The subject property is a Four-Diamond oceanfront luxury resort, Grand Wailea Maui, a Waldorf Astoria Resort, located on Wailea Beach on the island of Maui. Originally developed in 1991, the property features 776 hotel keys, eight food and beverage outlets, 100,000 square feet (sf) of meeting/event space, a 50,000 sf spa, and a 20,000 sf recreation outlet centre for children. The hotel received over $61.1 million ($78,700 per key) of capital investment in the five years prior to this securitization, including approximately $22.6 million ($29,182 per key) since 2015, allocated to guest rooms and suites.

The loan is sponsored by Blackstone Real Estate Partners, which acquired the portfolio from GIC Private Limited. Loan proceeds were used to facilitate the acquisition of the subject as part of a three-property portfolio transaction that included the Arizona Biltmore and the La Quinta Resort & Club, for an aggregate purchase price of $1.635 billion, $980 million of which was allocated to the Grand Wailea. The hotel has been managed by Waldorf Astoria, an affiliate of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., since 2013, with the current management agreement running through 2024 with one ten-year extension option remaining.

The property has performed well over the past several years as compared with its competitive set of luxury properties in Maui. The resort is supported by a strong, consistent base of group business. The hotel features 100,000 sf of indoor and outdoor meeting space, including the 27,000 sf Haleakala Ballroom, the largest resort ballroom in all of Maui. Historically, the subject has served as the premier meeting and convention venue of choice for technology giants, such as Google, Oracle, and SAP. Unlike the island of Oahu, which relies in large part on demand from Japan, the vast majority of travellers to Maui are from the United States. This serves to insulate the subject from currency risk and other factors that affect properties that rely on tourists from other countries. The current year presented more challenges with the coronavirus pandemic lockdown beginning in mid-March 2020. The governor responded to the virus by closing the island’s tourism-related industry and has now further delayed the reopening date for this industry to October 2020 from September 2020.

Per the trailing 12-months ending March 2020 STR report, the subject reported an occupancy rate, average daily rate, and revenue per available room of 89.4%, $559.69, and $500.64, respectively, compared with the competitive set figures of 82.1%, $570.19, and $468.16.

DBRS Morningstar reanalyzed the net cash flow (NCF) derived at issuance for the subject rating action to confirm its consistency with the “DBRS Morningstar North American Commercial Real Estate Property Analysis Criteria.” The resulting NCF figure was $47.0 million and DBRS Morningstar applied a cap rate of 7.75%, which resulted in a DBRS Morningstar Value of $606.7 million, a variance of 42.7% from the appraised value of $1,058 million at issuance. The DBRS Morningstar Value implies an LTV of 84.1% compared with the LTV of 48.3% on the appraised value at issuance.

The cap rate DBRS Morningstar applied is at the lower end of the range of DBRS Morningstar Cap Rate Ranges for lodging properties, reflecting the asset quality and excellent oceanfront location in a market with high barriers to entry.

DBRS Morningstar made positive qualitative adjustments to the final LTV sizing benchmarks used for this rating analysis totalling 4.50% to account for property quality and market fundamentals.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ANALYSIS
DBRS Morningstar overlaid various scenarios incorporating MVDs consistent with the projections in the “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: September Update” (https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542) to estimate the impact of coronavirus-related changes in asset performance on a tranche-by-tranche basis for the subject transaction. The scenarios included subjecting the most recent appraised collateral value to generalized CRE asset value decline projections with an assumption of approximately 45% under the moderate scenario. In cases where the rated debt exceeded the scenario value, DBRS Morningstar assumed that a principal writedown had occurred to account for the difference. Because of the reverse-sequential allocation of losses in commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) transactions, DBRS Morningstar’s analysis considered the most subordinate certificate first and, if a complete principal writedown of the certificate had occurred during the scenario, DBRS Morningstar repeated the analysis for the second-most subordinate certificate and so on until the rated debt no longer exceeded the scenario value.

Under the moderate scenario, the cumulative rated debt was insulated from loss.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Classes X-EXT is an IO certificate that references a single rated tranche or multiple rated tranches. The IO rating mirrors the lowest-rated applicable reference obligation tranche adjusted upward by one notch if senior in the waterfall.

All ratings are subject to surveillance, which could result in ratings being upgraded, downgraded, placed under review, confirmed, or discontinued by DBRS Morningstar.

DBRS Morningstar provides updated analysis and in-depth commentary in the DBRS Viewpoint platform for this transaction.

For complimentary access to this content, please register for the DBRS Viewpoint platform at www.viewpoint.dbrsmorningstar.com. The platform includes loan-level data for most outstanding CMBS transactions (including non-DBRS Morningstar-rated), as well as loan-level and transaction-level commentary for most DBRS Morningstar-rated and -monitored transactions.

Notes:
All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodologies are the North American Single-Asset/Single-Borrower Ratings Methodology (March 1, 2020) and North American CMBS Surveillance Methodology (March 6, 2020), which can be found on www.dbrsmorningstar.com under Methodologies & Criteria. For a list of the structured-finance-related methodologies that may be used during the rating process, please see the DBRS Morningstar Global Structured Finance Related Methodologies document, which can be found on www.dbrsmorningstar.com in the Commentary tab under Regulatory Affairs. Please note that not every related methodology listed under a principal structured finance asset class methodology may be used to rate or monitor an individual structured finance or debt obligation.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

The related regulatory disclosures pursuant to the National Instrument 25-101 Designated Rating Organizations are hereby incorporated by reference and can be found by clicking on the link under Related Documents or by contacting us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

The rated entity or its related entities did participate in the rating process for this rating action. DBRS Morningstar had access to the accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this rating action.

Please see the related appendix for additional information regarding the sensitivity of assumptions used in the rating process. Please note a sensitivity analysis is not performed for CMBS bonds rated CCC or lower. The DBRS Morningstar long-term rating scale definition indicates that ratings of CCC or lower are assigned when the bond is highly likely to default or default is imminent, thereby prevailing over a sensitivity analysis.

Generally, the conditions that lead to the assignment of a Negative or Positive trend are generally resolved within a 12-month period. DBRS Morningstar’s outlooks and ratings are monitored.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

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