DBRS Morningstar Assigns Ratings to Natixis Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2018-SOX

DBRS Limited (DBRS Morningstar) assigned ratings to the Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2018-SOX issued by Natixis Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2018-SOX as follows:

-- Class A at AAA (sf)
-- Class B at AAA (sf)
-- Class C at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class D at A (low) (sf)
-- Class E at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class V2 at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class V-ABC at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class V-D at A (low) (sf)
-- Class V-E at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class X at AA (sf)

All trends are Negative because the underlying collateral continues to face performance challenges associated with the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) global pandemic.

These certificates are currently also rated by DBRS Morningstar’s affiliated rating agency, Morningstar Credit Ratings, LLC (MCR). In connection with the ongoing consolidation of DBRS Morningstar and MCR, MCR previously announced that it had placed its outstanding ratings of these certificates Under Review–Analytical Integration Review and that MCR intended to withdraw its outstanding ratings; such withdrawal will occur on or about October 7, 2020. In accordance with MCR’s engagement letter covering these certificates, upon withdrawal of MCR’s outstanding ratings, the DBRS Morningstar ratings will become the successor ratings to the withdrawn MCR ratings. Information about the MCR ratings, including the history of the MCR ratings, can be found at www.morningstarcreditratings.com.

On March 1, 2020, DBRS Morningstar finalized its “North American Single-Asset/Single-Borrower Ratings Methodology” (the NA SASB Methodology), which presents the criteria for which ratings are assigned to and/or monitored for North American single-asset/single-borrower (NA SASB) transactions, large concentrated pools, rake certificates, ground lease transactions, and credit tenant lease transactions. For further information on the NA SASB Methodology, please see the press release dated March 1, 2020, at www.dbrsmorningstar.com. On March 27, 2020, DBRS Morningstar placed the ratings on its outstanding SASB transactions secured by hospitality properties Under Review with Negative Implications while MCR placed the ratings on its outstanding SASB transactions secured by hospitality properties Under Review Negative as the global shelter-in-place and travel restrictions related to the coronavirus have had an extreme impact on the short-term performance of this asset class. For further information on these rating actions, please see the DBRS Morningstar press release dated March 27, 2020, at www.dbrsmorningstar.com and the MCR press release dated March 27, 2020, at www.morningstarcreditratings.com.

To assign ratings to this transaction, DBRS Morningstar considered both the impact of the updated NA SASB Methodology and its scenarios attributable to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic on the ratings.

Because of the coronavirus’ significant impact on hospitality performance, DBRS Morningstar first considered the application of the updated NA SASB Methodology in conjunction with the “North American CMBS Surveillance Methodology” to arrive at a baseline result, which incorporated qualitative assumptions, capitalization rates, and loan-to-value (LTV) ratio sizing benchmark quality/volatility adjustments and excluded any potential changes in current or future expected asset performance resulting from the coronavirus.

DBRS Morningstar then overlaid scenarios incorporating market value declines (MVDs) consistent with the projections in its “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: September Update” published on September 10, 2020, on top of the baseline result to determine the impact of coronavirus-related changes in asset performance on the subject transaction on a tranche-by-tranche basis. For more information on these scenarios, please refer to the Coronavirus Impact Analysis section of this document. The global macroeconomic scenarios include a moderate decline of 15% for all commercial real estate (CRE), which acts as an average for all CRE property types. However, DBRS Morningstar expects a higher stress for hospitality properties, ranging from 25% to 45% based on the type of demand segmentation and asset location, and expects corporate demand and remote fly-to locations to be at the higher end of the value decline.

LOAN/PROPERTY OVERVIEW
The transaction consists of a $110.0 million first mortgage secured by the fee-simple interest in the InterContinental Boston hotel. The sponsor developed and built the property between 2004 and 2006, commencing operations in November 2006. The property was master leased by the sponsor to InterContinental Hotels Group Resources, Inc. under a triple-net lease on a 99-year initial term with two 20-year extension options, and a fully extended term stretching to July 2145. There is also a $65.0 million subordinate B note and two mezzanine loans of $60.0 million and $30.0 million held outside of the trust. The mezzanine loans are coterminous with the whole loan’s maturity date. Total loan funds were used to refinance existing debt of $209.2 million, cover closing costs, fund a rent step-up reserve account of $10.0 million, fund other reserve accounts, and return $40.9 million of equity to the sponsor. The 10-year loan is interest only (IO) for its entirety with a maturity date of June 2028.

The InterContinental Boston is a 424-room, full-service, Four Diamond AAA-rated hotel located in downtown Boston adjacent to the Financial and Seaport districts. In close proximity to the subject are the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center, New England Aquarium, and the Boston Tea Party Ships and Museum in addition to various shops and restaurants. The collateral consists of the first 12 floors of a 20-storey building and offers a 32,000-square foot meeting space, three restaurants, a spa, health and fitness center, and a 375-space parking garage which is not part of the collateral. The lease is guaranteed by Six Continents PLC, a subsidiary of InterContinental Hotels Group, with an expiry on August 1, 2032, four years after the loan’s maturity date. InterContinental Hotels Group Resources, Inc. self-manages the property. The master lease rent is currently fixed at $16.0 million and steps up to $21.1 million in August 2022 with further rental increases scheduled over the term of the lease. The collateral has remained current on its debt service obligations and based on the most recent reporting from March 2020 has a debt service coverage ratio of 1.83 times which has remained constant from YE2019. The loan has not been placed on the servicer’s watchlist or received any forbearance to date.

The loan sponsor is Extell Boston Atlantic LLC (Extell), a subsidiary of Extell Development. Extell was originally founded in 1989 and since that time has developed over 25.0 million square feet of luxury residential, commercial, hospitality, and mixed-use properties throughout major markets in the United States with an emphasis in New York City. Because of the hotel’s location and reliance on convention and leisure customers, DBRS Morningstar expects the collateral to struggle in the near term as demand drivers continue to be affected by the global pandemic. An updated Smith travel accommodations report was not available at the time of this review.

DBRS Morningstar reanalyzed the net cash flow (NCF) derived at issuance for the subject rating action to confirm its consistency with the “DBRS Morningstar North American Commercial Real Estate Property Analysis Criteria.” The resulting NCF figure was $14.0 million and DBRS Morningstar applied a cap rate of 8.25%, which resulted in a DBRS Morningstar Value of $169.2 million, a variance of 50.3% from the appraised value of $340.0 million at issuance. The DBRS Morningstar Value implies an LTV of 65.0% compared with the LTV of 32.3% on the appraised value at issuance.

The cap rate DBRS Morningstar applied is at the middle of DBRS Morningstar Cap Rate Ranges for lodging properties, reflecting strong sponsorship from Extell, the luxury property quality of the hotel, and its proximity to various demand drivers.

DBRS Morningstar made positive qualitative adjustments to the final LTV sizing benchmarks used for this rating analysis, totalling 4.0% to account for property quality and market fundamentals.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ANALYSIS
DBRS Morningstar overlaid various scenarios incorporating MVDs consistent with the projections in the “Global Macroeconomic Scenarios: September Update” (https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/366542) to estimate the impact of coronavirus-related changes in asset performance on a tranche-by-tranche basis for the subject transaction. The scenarios included subjecting the most recent appraised collateral value to generalized CRE asset value decline projections with an assumption of approximately 25.0% under the moderate scenario. In cases where the rated debt exceeded the scenario value, DBRS Morningstar assumed that a principal writedown had occurred to account for the difference. Because of the reverse-sequential allocation of losses in commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) transactions, DBRS Morningstar’s analysis considered the most subordinate certificate first and, if a complete principal writedown of the certificate had occurred during the scenario, DBRS Morningstar repeated the analysis for the second-most subordinate certificate and so on until the rated debt no longer exceeded the scenario value.

Under the moderate scenario, the cumulative rated debt was insulated from loss.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Class X is an IO certificate that references a single rated tranche or multiple rated tranches. The IO rating mirrors the lowest-rated applicable reference obligation tranche adjusted upward by one notch if senior in the waterfall.

All ratings are subject to surveillance, which could result in ratings being upgraded, downgraded, placed under review, confirmed, or discontinued by DBRS Morningstar.

DBRS Morningstar provides updated analysis and in-depth commentary in the DBRS Viewpoint platform for this transaction.

For complimentary access to this content, please register for the DBRS Viewpoint platform at www.viewpoint.dbrsmorningstar.com. The platform includes loan-level data for most outstanding CMBS transactions (including non-DBRS Morningstar-rated), as well as loan-level and transaction-level commentary for most DBRS Morningstar-rated and -monitored transactions.

Notes:
All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodologies are the North American Single-Asset/Single-Borrower Ratings Methodology (March 1, 2020) and North American CMBS Surveillance Methodology (March 6, 2020), which can be found on www.dbrsmorningstar.com under Methodologies & Criteria. For a list of the structured-finance-related methodologies that may be used during the rating process, please see the DBRS Morningstar Global Structured Finance Related Methodologies document, which can be found on www.dbrsmorningstar.com in the Commentary tab under Regulatory Affairs. Please note that not every related methodology listed under a principal structured finance asset class methodology may be used to rate or monitor an individual structured finance or debt obligation.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

For more information regarding the structured finance rating approach and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359905.

The related regulatory disclosures pursuant to the National Instrument 25-101 Designated Rating Organizations are hereby incorporated by reference and can be found by clicking on the link under Related Documents or by contacting us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

The rated entity or its related entities did participate in the rating process for this rating action. DBRS Morningstar had access to the accounts and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity or its related entities in connection with this rating action.

Please see the related appendix for additional information regarding the sensitivity of assumptions used in the rating process. Please note a sensitivity analysis is not performed for CMBS bonds rated CCC or lower. The DBRS Morningstar long-term rating scale definition indicates that ratings of CCC or lower are assigned when the bond is highly likely to default or default is imminent, thereby prevailing over a sensitivity analysis.

Generally, the conditions that lead to the assignment of a Negative or Positive trend are generally resolved within a 12-month period. DBRS Morningstar’s outlooks and ratings are monitored.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

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