Press Release

DBRS Morningstar Confirms A (high) Ratings on Cajamar Cédulas Hipotecarias

Covered Bonds

July 10, 2020

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its A (high) ratings on the Cédulas Hipotecarias (CH or Spanish Covered Bonds) that are outstanding and rated by DBRS Morningstar under the Cajamar Caja Rural S.C.C. Covered Bonds Programme (Cajamar CH or the Programme). The confirmations follow the completion of a full review of the Programme. At the same time, DBRS Morningstar discontinued its rating on Cedulas Hipotecarias - ES0422714057, which matured on 30 June 2020.

The ratings reflect the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) reflective of the likelihood that the source of payments will switch from the Reference Entity (RE) to the cover pool (CP). Cajamar Caja Rural, Sociedad Cooperativa de Crédito (Cajamar) is the Issuer and RE for the Programme. There is no Critical Obligations Rating associated with the RE and DBRS Morningstar classifies Spain as a jurisdiction in which covered bonds are a particularly important funding instrument.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Average” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of “A”, which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of A (low).
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 117.9% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, which is the minimum observed OC level during the past 12 months, adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.90.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction with its European Covered Bonds Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses, and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the CP.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a three-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a three-notch downgrade of the covered bond ratings. In addition, all else unchanged, the CH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following were to occur: (1) the CPCA was downgraded below “A”; (2) the sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain was downgraded below A (low); (3) the LSF assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded; (4) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profiles of the CH and the CP were to move adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets caused the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

There are currently EUR 5.75 billion of CH outstanding under the Programme, of which DBRS Morningstar publicly rates EUR 3 billion. As of 31 March 2020, the aggregate balance of mortgages in the CP was EUR 13.28 billion, which results in a total estimated current OC of 131.0%. The eligible CP stood at EUR 9.98 billion, resulting in an estimated eligible current OC of 73.5%.

Spanish covered bonds are backed by the entire mortgage book of the bank, except mortgage loans pledged to securitisations and bonos hipotecarios. As of 31 March 2020, the CP comprised 166,542 mortgage loans with a 69.6% residential, 25.7% commercial, 3.2% developer, and 1.5% land loan share, and a weighted-average (WA) current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 57.0%. It is geographically distributed among Cajamar´s main areas of activity, with the highest concentrations in Andalusia (Andalusia (33.1%), Community of Valencia (25.5%), and Murcia (17.7%). The pool was 98 months seasoned. All mortgages were originated in euros. The interest rates of the underlying loans are both floating (95.5%) and fixed (4.5%).

As is customary in the Spanish market, CH do not receive the benefit of any swap contract to hedge the mismatches between the interest yield by the CP (95.5% floating rate loans linked to different indexes and resets) and the interest due on the CH (100% fixed). This risk is mitigated by the available OC and has been accounted for in DBRS Morningstar´s cash flow analysis.

The DBRS Morningstar-calculated WA life of the assets is approximately 10 years while that of the covered bonds is approximately 2.4 years. This generates an asset-liability mismatch that is mitigated by the available OC and has been accounted for in DBRS Morningstar´s cash flow analysis.

All liabilities are denominated in euros, as are all CP assets; as such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign exchange risk.

DBRS Morningstar has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Average” according to its “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS Morningstar’s commentaries, “DBRS Assigns Legal and Structuring Framework Assessment to Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds Programmes” and “Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review”, both available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and the resulting isolation measures have caused an economic contraction, leading to sharp increases in unemployment rates and income reductions for many borrowers. DBRS Morningstar anticipates that delinquencies may arise in the coming months for many CPs, some meaningfully. The ratings are based on additional analysis and adjustments to expected performance as a result of the global efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. In the cover pool analysis of this programme, DBRS Morningstar assumed a moderate decline in residential property prices.

The DBRS Morningstar Sovereign group released on 16 April 2020 a set of macroeconomic scenarios for the 2020-22 period in select economies. These scenarios were updated on 1 June 2020. For details see the following commentaries: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/361867/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-june-update and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359903/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-application-to-credit-ratings. DBRS Morningstar analysis considered impacts consistent with the moderate scenario in the referenced reports.

On 24 April 2020, DBRS Morningstar published a commentary outlining how the coronavirus crisis is likely to affect DBRS Morningstar-rated covered bonds in Europe. For more details, please see: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/359987/covid-19-the-impact-on-european-covered-bonds and https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/362712/european-structured-finance-covid-19-credit-risk-exposure-roadmap.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is: “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” (27 April 2020).

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release.

These may be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include CP stratification tables as at 31 March 2020 and static pool default and recovery data on Cajamar mortgage book from Q2 2015 to Q1 2020, split into residential and nonresidential, provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time the of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 11 July 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its ratings on the outstanding DBRS Morningstar-rated Cajamar CH.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Christian Aufsatz, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 19 July 2013

DBRS Ratings GmbH, Sucursal en España
Calle del Pinar, 5
28006 Madrid
Spain
Tel. +34 (91) 903 6500

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.

ALL MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO DISCLAIMERS AND CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. PLEASE READ THESE DISCLAIMERS AND LIMITATIONS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING MORNINGSTAR DBRS RATINGS, INCLUDING DEFINITIONS, POLICIES, RATING SCALES AND METHODOLOGIES.

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