DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on MondoMutui Cariparma S.r.l. - Series 2012

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA (sf) rating on the Class A Notes issued by MondoMutui Cariparma S.r.l. - Series 2012 (the Issuer).

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in April 2060.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:

-- Portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the October 2019 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the notes to cover the expected losses at the AAA (sf) rating level.

The Issuer is an Italian securitisation collateralised by a portfolio of residential mortgage loans granted and serviced by Crédit Agricole Italia S.p.A., formerly Crédit Agricole Cariparma S.p.A. The transaction closed in February 2012 and follows the standard structure under Italian securitisation law.

As of the October 2019 payment date, the balance of the Class A Notes was EUR 802.2 million. The EUR 1,254.6 million securitised portfolio (excluding defaulted receivables) consisted of first-ranking loans secured by residential properties mainly located in northern and central Italy. The Italian regions of Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna house the largest concentration of loans, representing 32.7% and 24.2% of the portfolio balance as of year-end 2019, respectively.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of 31 December 2019, total delinquencies represented 3.1% of the portfolio outstanding balance. Gross cumulative defaults amounted to 2.5% of the original portfolio balance, with cumulative recoveries of 76.4% to date.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND KEY DRIVERS
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has updated its base case PD and LGD assumptions to 9.1% and 21.1%, respectively.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the Class J Notes provides credit enhancement to the transaction. As of the October 2019 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes increased to 36.1%, up from 31.6% at the time of the last annual review 12 months ago.

The transaction benefits from an automatically renewing liquidity line to cover shortfalls on senior expenses and interest payments on the Class A Notes. The liquidity facility amortises to a maximum aggregate balance of 3.2% of the outstanding balance of Class A Notes. As of the October 2019 payment date, EUR 34.2 million was available.

A swap agreement is in place to hedge the interest rate mismatch between the issued notes, indexed to six-month Euribor, and the interest rate payments from the collateral portfolio. Crédit Agricole Italia S.p.A. acts as the Hedging Counterparty for the transaction. As the counterparty required ratings in the hedging agreement do not reference DBRS Morningstar rating thresholds, the swap agreement was not considered in the cash flow analysis of the transaction.

Crédit Agricole Italia S.p.A. acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the DBRS Morningstar private rating of Crédit Agricole Italia S.p.A., the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors inherent in the transaction structure, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
A description of how DBRS Morningstar considers ESG factors within the DBRS Morningstar analytical framework and its methodologies can be found at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357792.

For more information regarding rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357883.

For more information regarding structured finance rating methodologies and Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), please see the following DBRS Morningstar press release: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/358308.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology” (13 December 2019). DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include servicer and investor reports provided by Crédit Agricole Italia S.p.A. and loan-by-loan data from the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 11 April 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the rating on the Class A Notes at AAA (sf).

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Daniel Rakhamimov.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 9.1% and 21.1%, respectively.
-- The risk sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to remain at AAA (sf), ceteris paribus. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to decrease to AA (low) (sf), ceteris paribus. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating on the Class A Notes would be expected to decrease to AA (low) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AAA (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (high) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf)

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and U.S. regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Daniel Rakhamimov, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 24 May 2012

DBRS Ratings GmbH
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60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Tel. +49 (69) 8088 3500

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/about/methodologies.

-- Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology (13 December 2019), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/354616/master-european-structured-finance-surveillance-methodology
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda (10 December 2019) and European RMBS Credit Model 1.0,
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/354403/master-european-residential-mortgage-backed-securities-rating-methodology-and-jurisdictional-addenda
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (11 September 2019),
https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350234/legal-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions (26 September 2019), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/350907/derivative-criteria-for-european-structured-finance-transactions
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers (28 February 2020), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357429/operational-risk-assessment-for-european-structured-finance-servicers
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions (10 October 2019), https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/351557/interest-rate-stresses-for-european-structured-finance-transactions

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at http://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrsmorningstar.com or contact us at info@dbrsmorningstar.com.