DBRS Morningstar Confirms Rating on Golden Bar (Securitisation) S.r.l. - Series 2018-1

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AA (sf) rating on the Class A Notes issued by Golden Bar (Securitisation) S.r.l. - Series 2018-1 (the Issuer).

The rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of principal on or before the legal final maturity date in March 2037.

The confirmation follows an annual review of the transaction and is based on the following analytical considerations:
-- The portfolio performance, in terms of delinquencies, defaults, and losses as of the December 2019 payment date;
-- Probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected loss assumptions on the remaining receivables;
-- Current available credit enhancement to the Class A Notes to cover the expected losses at the AA (sf) rating level.
-- No revolving termination events have occurred.

The Issuer is a securitisation of Italian consumer loan receivables originated and serviced by Santander Consumer Bank SpA. The transaction follows the standard structure under Italian securitisation law and closed in April 2018. The transaction has a 26-month revolving period, which is expected to end in June 2020.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
As of the December 2019 payment date, one- to two-month, two- to three-month and loans more than three months in arrears were all at 0.1% of the outstanding portfolio balance, stable since the last annual review. As of the December 2019 payment date, the gross cumulative default ratio was 0.6% of the aggregate initial portfolio balance and cumulative transferred receivables, with cumulative recoveries of 11.2% so far.

PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS AND REVOLVING PERIOD
DBRS Morningstar conducted a loan-by-loan analysis of the remaining pool of receivables and has maintained its base case PD assumption at 5.2% and updated its LGD assumption to 83.2% from 83.0% at the last annual review.
The transaction includes a 26-month revolving period, during which the Issuer has the option to purchase new receivables. Concentration limits are in place to mitigate any negative evolution of the portfolio, and performance triggers are included in the revolving period termination events. When the revolving period ends, the amortisation of the notes will begin. To date, all triggers have been met.

CREDIT ENHANCEMENT
The subordination of the junior notes and the cash reserve provides credit enhancement to the Class A Notes. As of the December 2019 payment date, credit enhancement to the Class A Notes was 18.1%, stable since the DBRS Morningstar initial rating because of the transaction revolving period.
The cash reserve covers senior fees and interest shortfall on the Class A Notes. The cash reserve is also available to clear the principal deficiency ledger. As of the December 2019 payment date, the cash reserve was at its target level of EUR 3.9 million.

Banco Santander SA (Santander) acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based on the account bank reference rating of Santander at A (high), one notch below its DBRS Morningstar Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of AA (low), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and structural mitigants, DBRS Morningstar considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be consistent with the rating assigned to the Class A Notes, as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

Santander also acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction. DBRS Morningstar's Long-Term COR of Santander at AA (low) is above the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions" methodology.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction structure in Intex DealMaker.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the rating is the “Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology”.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

An asset and a cash flow analysis were both conducted. Due to the inclusion of a revolving period in the transaction, the analysis continues to be based on the worst-case replenishment criteria set forth in the transaction legal documents.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for this rating include investor reports provided by The Bank of New York Mellon SA/NV - Milan Branch, and loan-level data provided by the European DataWarehouse GmbH.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing this rating to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 26 April 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed the rating of the Class A Notes at AA (sf).

The lead analyst responsibilities for this transaction have been transferred to Petter Wettestad.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies is available at www.dbrs.com.

To assess the impact of changing the transaction parameters on the rating, DBRS Morningstar considered the following stress scenarios as compared with the parameters used to determine the rating (the base case):

-- DBRS Morningstar expected a lifetime base case PD and LGD for the pool based on a review of the current assets. Adverse changes to asset performance may cause stresses to base case assumptions and therefore have a negative effect on credit ratings.
-- The base case PD and LGD of the current pool of loans for the Issuer are 5.2% and 83.2%, respectively.
-- The Risk Sensitivity overview below illustrates the ratings expected if the PD and LGD increase by a certain percentage over the base case assumption. For example, if the LGD increases by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to AA (low) (sf), assuming no change in the PD. If the PD increases by 50%, the rating for the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to A (low) (sf), assuming no change in the LGD. Furthermore, if both the PD and LGD increase by 50%, the rating of the Class A Notes would be expected to fall to BBB (high) (sf).

Class A Notes Risk Sensitivity:
-- 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf).
-- 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of AA (low) (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD, expected rating of A (high) (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD, expected rating of A (low) (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf).
-- 25% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of A (low) (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD and 25% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf).
-- 50% increase in PD and 50% increase in LGD, expected rating of BBB (high) (sf).

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Petter Wettestad, Senior Analyst
Rating Committee Chair: Alfonso Candelas, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 27 April 2018

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

--Master European Structured Finance Surveillance Methodology
--Rating European Consumer and Commercial Asset-Backed Securitisations
--Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
--Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
--Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
--Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
--Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.