DBRS Morningstar Confirms Ratings on Series Outstanding under Banco BPM Covered Bonds (OBG - Mortgages - Popolare Programme 1)

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its “A” ratings on the Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite (OBG; the Italian legislative covered bonds) issued under the Banco BPM Covered Bonds Programme 1 (Banco BPM OBG1 or the Programme). The rating action follows the completion of a full review of the Programme.

As of today, there are six outstanding series of OBG, for a total nominal amount of EUR 4.75 billion under the Programme. The series are guaranteed by BP Covered Bond S.r.l.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:

-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of BBB (high), which is the Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating (COR) of Banco BPM. Banco BPM is the Issuer and Reference Entity (RE) for the Programme. DBRS Morningstar classifies Italy as a jurisdiction in which covered bonds (CB) are a particularly important funding instrument and deems the cover pool (CP) strategic for the core activity of the Issuer.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Adequate” associated with the Programme.
-- An LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L) of BBB (high).
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
---A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 2.4% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, being the minimum observed OC level during the past 12 months, adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.9. DBRS Morningstar gives limited credit to the cash portion of the CP.

DBRS Morningstar analysed the transaction using its European Covered Bond Cash Flow tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, and interest rate stresses.

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the covered bonds ratings.

In addition, all else unchanged, the CB ratings would be downgraded if the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.

Banco BPM acts as the account bank for this transaction. The replacement trigger on Banco BPM in its capacity as account bank is not fully compliant with DBRS Morningstar’s counterparty criteria; hence, DBRS Morningstar gives limited credit to the cash accumulating in the account bank in accordance with its “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodology.

UBS Limited acts as the CB swap counterparty; however, the swap documentation is not fully compliant with DBRS Morningstar’s derivatives criteria. As such, no credit was given to swap transactions in DBRS Morningstar’s analysis.

The total outstanding amount of OBG is EUR 4.75 billion. As at 31 December 2019, the aggregate balance of the CP was EUR 4.6 billion of residential mortgages plus EUR 1.1 billion of cash collections, resulting in a total OC of 19.3%. However, when considering the statutory limit on integration assets and the reduced credit DBRS Morningstar gives to cash, the resulting net OC amounts to 2.7%.

As at December 2019, the CP comprised 60,912 loans secured by first-rank mortgages, originated by Banco Popolare SC and network banks of the group.

The weighted-average current loan-to-value ratio of the mortgages was 50.7% with a seasoning of 8.4 years. The CP was mainly distributed in Lombardy (29.5%), Veneto (13.3%), Toscana (11.6%), and Emilia Romagna (11.1%).

The CP comprised 27.0% fixed-for-life loans by outstanding balance and 73.0% floating-rate loans. The floating-rate mortgage loans are indexed to different plain-vanilla indices and reset at different dates.

In comparison, 26.3% of the liabilities pay a fixed rate and 73.7% pay a floating rate linked to one- and three-month Euribor plus a spread. The resulting interest and basis risks are considered as unhedged in DBRS Morningstar’s cash flow analysis.

All CP assets and OBG are denominated in euros. As such, investors are not currently exposed to any foreign exchange risk.

The weighted-average life (WAL) of the CP is 8.3 years, whereas the WAL of the OBG is 1.8 years. The resulting asset-liability maturity mismatch is mitigated by the 12-month maturity extension in case of an Issuer event of default and by the OC.

DBRS Morningstar has assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Adequate”, according to its rating methodology. For more information, please refer to the DBRS Morningstar commentary “Italian Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite Legal and Structuring Framework” at www.dbrs.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrs.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds”.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents has been limited to the partial redemption and the maturity postponement (by four years) of Series 7, which occurred in March 2019.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: https://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of data and information used for these ratings include historical performance data, loan-by-loan level data, and stratification information on the CP provided by the Issuer.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial ratings, DBRS Morningstar was supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar considers the data and information available to it for the purposes of providing these ratings to be of satisfactory quality.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit or independently verify the data or information it receives in connection with the rating process.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 15 February 2019, when DBRS Morningstar confirmed its “A” ratings on the outstanding CB series.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies, and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see: https://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Antonio Laudani, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: Ketan Thaker, Managing Director
Initial Rating Date: 15 February 2016

DBRS Ratings GmbH, Sucursal en España
Calle del Pinar, 5
28006 Madrid
Spain

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at:
https://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds
-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Master European Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Rating Methodology and Jurisdictional Addenda
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.