DBRS Morningstar Confirms AAA Ratings of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Covered Bonds

DBRS Ratings GmbH (DBRS Morningstar) confirmed its AAA ratings on outstanding Cédulas Hipotecarias (CH, Spanish mortgage covered bonds) issued by the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. (BBVA or the Issuer) under the BBVA CH programme (the Programme). This rating action follows the completion of a full review of the ratings.

The ratings are based on the following analytical considerations:
-- A Covered Bonds Attachment Point (CBAP) of AA (low), which is BBVA’s Long Term Critical Obligations Rating. BBVA is the Issuer and Reference Entity (RE) for the Programme.
-- A Legal and Structuring Framework (LSF) Assessment of “Average” associated with the Programme.
-- A Cover Pool Credit Assessment (CPCA) of BBB (high), which is the lowest CPCA in line with the LSF-Implied Likelihood (LSF-L).
-- An LSF-L of AA.
-- A two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects.
-- A level of overcollateralisation (OC) of 79.1% to which DBRS Morningstar gives credit, which is the minimum level observed in the last 12 months adjusted by a scaling factor of 0.85.

The transaction was analysed with the DBRS Morningstar European Covered Bond Cash Flow Tool. The main assumptions focused on the timing of defaults and recoveries of the assets, interest rate stresses, and market value spreads to calculate liquidation values on the cover pool (CP).

Everything else being equal, a one-notch downgrade of the CBAP would lead to a one-notch downgrade of the LSF-L, resulting in a one-notch downgrade of the covered bonds rating. In addition, all else unchanged, the CH ratings would be downgraded if any of the following occurred: (1) the CPCA was downgraded below BBB (high); (2) the sovereign rating of the Kingdom of Spain (rated “A” with a Positive trend by DBRS Morningstar) was downgraded below A (low); (3) the LSF Assessment associated with the Programme was downgraded; (4) the quality of the CP and the level of OC were no longer sufficient to support a two-notch uplift for high recovery prospects; (5) the relative amortisation profile of the CH and CP moved adversely; or (6) volatility in the financial markets caused the currently estimated market value spreads to increase.

There are currently EUR 32.42 billion of CH outstanding under the Programme, of which DBRS Morningstar publicly rates EUR 20.86 billion. As of 31 December 2019, the aggregate balance of the mortgages in the CP was EUR 62.6 billion, yielding a current nominal OC ratio of 93%. During the same period, the eligible CP stood at EUR 43.6 billion, resulting in an eligible OC of 34.4%.

As of 31 December 2019, the CP comprised 915,985 mortgage loans, split into 83.5% residential and 16.5% nonresidential loans, with a weighted-average current unindexed loan-to-value ratio of 68.0%. It is geographically diversified, with the highest concentrations in Catalonia (37.0%), Madrid (15.2%), and Andalucía (13.7%). A small percentage of the loans(0.5%) was originated in a currency different from the euro. The pool is 110 months seasoned. The interest rate of the underlying loans are floating rate (81.8%) and fixed rate (18.2%).

As is customary in the Spanish market, CH holders do not receive the benefit of any swap contract to hedge mismatches between the interest yielded by the CP (81.8% floating rate linked to different indexes and resets) and the interest due on the CH (45.6% paying fixed rate and 54.4% floating rate linked to different indexes and resets). One foreign-currency CH amounts to a nominal of NOK 1.1 billion, equivalent to roughly EUR 111.5 million at the spot rate as of 31 December 2019 (or 0.34% of the CH outstanding). Of the loans, 0.5% were originated in a currency other than euros. DBRS Morningstar considers this exposure to be negligible and mitigated by the available OC.

The DBRS Morningstar-calculated weighted-average life of the assets is roughly 11 years while that of the covered bonds is 3.8 years. This generates an asset-liability mismatch that is mitigated by the available OC.

DBRS Morningstar assessed the LSF related to the Programme as “Average” according to its “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds” methodology. For more information, please refer to DBRS Morningstar’s commentaries: “DBRS Assigns Legal and Structuring Framework Assessment to Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds Programmes” and “Spanish Mortgage Covered Bonds: Legal and Structuring Framework Review”, both available at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

For further information on the Programme, please refer to the rating report at www.dbrsmorningstar.com.

Notes:
All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.

The principal methodology applicable to the ratings is “Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds”.

DBRS Morningstar has applied the principal methodology consistently and conducted a review of the transaction in accordance with the surveillance section of the principal methodology.

A review of the transaction legal documents was not conducted as the legal documents have remained unchanged since the most recent rating action.

Other methodologies referenced in this transaction are listed at the end of this press release. These may be found on www.dbrs.com at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

For a more detailed discussion of the sovereign risk impact on Structured Finance ratings, please refer to “Appendix C: The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Other DBRS Credit Ratings” of the “Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments” methodology at: https://www.dbrs.com/research/350410/global-methodology-for-rating-sovereign-governments.

The sources of information used for these ratings include stratification tables of the cover pool and historical performance data provided by the issuer, that allowed DBRS Morningstar to further assess the portfolio.

DBRS Morningstar did not rely upon third-party due diligence in order to conduct its analysis.

At the time of the initial rating, DBRS Morningstar was not supplied with third-party assessments. However, this did not impact the rating analysis.

DBRS Morningstar does not audit the information it receives in connection with the rating process, and it does not and cannot independently verify that information in every instance.

The last rating action on this transaction took place on 10 October 2019, when DBRS Morningstar assigned a AAA rating to a new CH issued by BBVA under the Programme.

Information regarding DBRS Morningstar ratings, including definitions, policies and methodologies, is available on www.dbrs.com.

For further information on DBRS Morningstar historical default rates published by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in a central repository, see:
http://cerep.esma.europa.eu/cerep-web/statistics/defaults.xhtml.

Ratings assigned by DBRS Ratings GmbH, Sucursal en España are subject to EU and US regulations only.

Lead Analyst: Covadonga Aybar, Vice President
Rating Committee Chair: David Lautier, Senior Vice President
Initial Rating Date: 20 February 2013

DBRS Ratings GmbH, Sucursal en España
Calle del Pinar, 5
28006 Madrid
Spain

DBRS Ratings GmbH
Neue Mainzer Straße 75
60311 Frankfurt am Main Deutschland

Geschäftsführer: Detlef Scholz
Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main, HRB 110259

The rating methodologies used in the analysis of this transaction can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/about/methodologies.

-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds
-- Rating and Monitoring Covered Bonds Addendum: Market Value Spreads
-- Global Methodology for Rating Banks and Banking Organisations
-- Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- Interest Rate Stresses for European Structured Finance Transactions
-- European RMBS Insight Methodology
-- European RMBS Insight: Spanish Addendum
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Originators
-- Operational Risk Assessment for European Structured Finance Servicers
-- Rating CLOs and CDOs of Large Corporate Credit
-- Rating CLOs Backed by Loans to European SMEs
-- Global Methodology for Rating Sovereign Governments

A description of how DBRS Morningstar analyses structured finance transactions and how the methodologies are collectively applied can be found at: http://www.dbrs.com/research/278375.

For more information on this credit or on this industry, visit www.dbrs.com or contact us at info@dbrs.com.